there Kherson edit It is an opportunity to open negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Otherwise, winter, with the inevitable stalemate of combat, will give the Russians a chance to reorganize their military apparatus. At this point, it is risky World War I scenario: a long position war, fought in the trenches, with an increasingly large and useless number of casualties, without a decisive outcome. To support these theses is none other than the most powerful American general: Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffi.e. the chief of staff and the highest position in the Pentagon under the direction of the Secretary of Defense.
This isn’t the first time in American history that generals have played “doves.” exactly the contraryFrom George Marshall to Dwight Eisenhower to Colin Powell, there is a long tradition of the moderate military, who have more cautious attitudes than politicians about the use of force (there have been exceptions in the opposite sense, such as Douglas MacArthur Who wanted to use nuclear weapons against China during the Korean War…). As it happens, once you pass the tipping point midterm electionsThe internal debate within the Biden administration over Ukraine has come to light. It is clear that the debate was already present in the election campaign, but the reasons for political tactics advised not to expose it.
Even if Ukraine has no weight in dynamics The vote, however, was noted that any position on the war was immediately exploited: as in the case of the Republican leader in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, and his rather blunt statements against the “blank checks” in Kyiv. Now that the elections have passed without much harm, and the bipartisan consensus on providing aid to Ukraine is unaffected, General Mark Milley came out of the closet and decided to reveal his position in public: First at a conference at the Economic Club here in New York, then in an interview with CNBC. “The Ukrainian armed forces, as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, fought to the point of disabling the Russians in a stalemate. We don’t know what will happen in the future, but there are now possibilities for diplomatic solutions. We must seize the opportunity.” This is a position that the first man in the US military has been upholding for some time in the internal debates of the Biden administration, and today the internal debate is being reconstructed against a broad background of The New York Times, signed by Peter Baker. Now that he has decided to explain himself publicly, General Mielle is also arguing about his position on Satellite footage showing Russian forces digging trenches: According to him, they are preparing to defend some occupied lands for the winter months in order to stabilize the balance of power between the two sides.
According to the US Chief of Staff, the withdrawal from Kherson is consistent with this goalHold positions that are defensible for the long term. The months of the great winter cold may see little change on the ground, which Miller says represents a “window of opportunity” to urge Putin to negotiate. The specter of World War I, which the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff used in his lecture at the Economic Club of New York, is a ghost A crippling struggle over almost immobile territorial lines, yet capable of causing millions of casualties. This means that we must begin to rule out a military solution to the conflict, and seek a political solution. The problem, of course, is the terms of negotiation and the limitations of this political solution. Other intellectual currents within the Biden administration They are open to General Miller’s argumentsalthough they are slightly more optimistic about the ability of the Ukrainian military to make further territorial gains.
Where Biden himself drew a red line, and also repeated it in his election result press conference, about this: America should not impose anything on Ukraine, let alone give the impression that it is forcing Zelensky to make territorial concessions. “No decision will be made on Ukraine without Ukraine,” Biden said at that press conference, to stress that he would never speak to Putin without bypassing Zelensky. In the meantime, however, his strategic advisor Jake Sullivan is on his recent trip to Kyiv persuade Zelensky To abandon the prejudice with which he refused to negotiate in principle while Putin was in power. However, the turning point in the midterm elections has put US foreign policy back in motion, as will also be seen with the Biden-Xi Jinping bilateral summit on the sidelines of the G-20 in Bali on Monday.
11 November 2022 19:49 – Change 11 November 2022 | 19:49
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