September 30, 2022

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The least exposed countries will act first

import ban petroleum from Russia Yes, but not immediate or total. A halt to the crude oil contained in the sixth package of sanctions is under discussion next week Brussels, is getting closer, but the ban that will end up at the table of the twenty-seven will have to be gradual and eclectic. In other words, it would be about following the example of what was already set at the beginning of April for coal (the phase-out of which is expected from August), which is to give the least exposed countries the opportunity to act first, as already announced by the Baltic states for example, and to provide, on The least at the moment, diesel and its other derivatives. All moves are dictated by prudence, in a way that avoids sudden shocks and instead protects the European industrial fabric threatened by a dangerous recession if flows are blocked, as the bleak forecasts of the International Monetary Fund this week and the Bundesbank warned. Technicians in the European Union are working alongside colleagues from the United States, according to sources cited by Bloomberg, to study together the best (and least counterproductive) way because Europe, which depends on Russia for 25% of its needs, is cutting off Moscow’s supplies. In doing so, they reduce energy supply payments, which currently amount to about 850 million euros per day.

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Table

The EU-US table evaluates the feasibility of several options, including the “price cap”, that is, setting a ceiling on the price of crude oil to minimize Kremlin profits, but also creating a closed account in which to pay a fee supplies Russians due to the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine; Account that though flies It will not be available at least until the ceasefire and the withdrawal of forces. The last hypothesis was formulated based on a proposal already made by Estonia which relates to gas. In fact, it is not without the fact that targeted and “smart” measures to target oil – as defined by the head of the authority Ursula von der Leyen – It could be a game plan to move to methane as well, when the 27 governments (especially Germany) break the delay and open up the possibility of gas import sanctions as well. At the moment, none of the options prevail among the EU countries, which will then be invited to agree to the restrictions unanimously.

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Hand raised by administration officials Biden This came as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sounded the alarm about the impact of the rebound that could lead to an immediate European shutdown of global markets, “causing prices to rise around the world and having a very limited negative impact on Russia, which will certainly have to Exporting lower but higher.” Washington is significantly less exposed to Russian energy than Europe, to the point that in early March it decided to suspend all imports. But it is now on alert for a planet-wide domino effect that could cause a gaffe by EU allies.

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