2024, the year in which half of humanity will vote in elections

The world has rarely encountered something so possible Change of direction is unpredictable. The year 2024 is starting off wide, with more than 4,000 million people, roughly 51% of the world's population, being called to the polls in 76 countries this new year.

Countries with great influence, both geopolitically and demographically, will determine where the future of the planet goes. At stake are critical issues such as green and digital transitions, international security, or geopolitical competition.

This is how Cidob analyzes it“The World in 2024” reportas indicated by this This new year will be decisive To find out if the answer is uniform, then… Fragmentation and the rise of political extremism that has transformed democracies on a global scale, or if the regime resists.”

These are the most important dates for the election year we are about to begin

The United States, awaiting the possible return of Trump

Certainly the biggest unknown of all elections is the presence of… Donald Trump as a candidate for the White House. First, because their immediate future is in the hands of the courts.

Colorado and Maine They banned Trump from running for president scheduled for Nov. 5 for trying to reverse the election results four years ago — and a congressional panel charged him with “insurrection” for his January 2021 takeover of the Capitol.

They do this by interpreting the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution, which includes: “Disqualification” clause.“For anyone who participated in ‘insurrection or insurrection.’” Republicans have already announced that they will appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.

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The controversy is expected to continue for months in the courts. If Trump finally becomes the Republican Party's nominee, he will eventually become the Republican Party's nominee on March 5. This day is known as Super Tuesday, because the Republican primaries will be held. Meanwhile, Joe Biden has already positioned himself as the Democratic nominee for re-election.

What Trump returns to the political front line It is important, because it is him Back to Washington It would change the US position on issues such as “ Supplying weapons to Ukraine, supporting Israel, or confrontation with Russia or China“Sidub points out.

If Trump finally becomes the Republican Party's nominee, it will eventually be known on March 5 (Reuters)

The European Union, a thermometer to measure the strength of the far right

The European Parliament elections will be held from June 6 to 9 next The continent is witnessing two wars on its territory –Ukraine and Gaza– will decide the strength of the far right in the European Union. The 2019 elections effectively marked the end of the coalition that, since the foundation's inception, had guaranteed the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats a majority of seats.

The latest voting intention forecasts give good results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) party, which includes far-right parties such as Marine Le Pen's National Reunification Party and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which could outperform the other far-right party, the European Conservatives and Reformists. (CRE), headed by Giorgia Meloni.

Hence, expectations are that traditional forces such as the European People's Party will lose support, although they will remain the main force. The question is therefore whether these more classical parties will eventually ally with the far right to obtain a majority of seats.

“The new EU majority will be crucial in determining the future of climate commitments, the continuity of aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms that should facilitate the entry of future members.”

This is 2024, at least Four candidate countries for European Union membership will hold elections: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia and Georgia. But all eyes are on Ukraine.

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It will be up to Ukrainians to go to the polls in NovemberBut under martial law and with eight million citizens out of the country due to the war, Volodymyr Zelensky has already indicated that this is not “the right time,” although he keeps open the possibility of calling elections.

Cartoons in non-democratic countries

Not all planned elections will take place in full democracies. One in four voters We will do it in the elections Hybrid or authoritarian regimes.

“Countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda and Iran will use these electoral processes to try to strengthen the leadership in power and gain legitimacy before their citizens.”

the Controversial Russian constitutional reform The 2020 law allows Vladimir Putin to run for re-election in 2024 and 2030. “There is no doubt about the outcome of this election,” the Sidop report notes. They argue that achieving a third term for Putin would serve as “a message to Russian elites to reassert their political control after the rise of the Wagner Group in June 2023.”

Russia's controversial 2020 constitutional reform allows Vladimir Putin to run for re-election in 2024 and 2030 (Reuters)

Mass elections and women's leadership

to'India There will also be elections, in addition, in 2023 It has overtaken China as the world's most populous countrywith more than 1.4 billion people. The opposition faces President Narendra Modi, who wants to renew his term for a third term “to complete his Hindu nationalist project in the face of an opposition more united than ever before.”

For its part, Mexico will elect its first female president On June 2, Claudia Sheinbaum, from the Morena Party, or Xochitl Gálvez, from the opposition, are the two candidates.

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