Winter weather trend 2023-2024, forecast distribution from the Copernicus multiple system. Video «3B Weather

Winter weather trend 2023-2024, forecast distribution from the Copernicus multiple system.  Video «3B Weather
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1 minute and 31 seconds
Winter weather trend 2023-2024, forecast distribution from the Copernicus multiple system.  Video «3B Weather
Seasonal displays proposed by the Copernican multiple system

Let’s analyze Copernicus’ multiple system model to get some general ideas about what kind of hemispheric circulation awaits us next winter. The latest calculations show a more zonal first part (dominant nAO+ regime) compared to a second part that is instead characterized by barring anticyclones centered between the North Atlantic and Greenland. This type of trend is close to years dominated by moderate and strong El Niños such as the ongoing one and by a positive AMO. The first part, the most zonal part, is also associated with the positive Indian Ocean dipole and the presence of El Niño. The more widespread zonal flow of the western Atlantic current means more intense with transient undulations over southern Europe, on the eastern edge of the anticyclone over the southwestern states, as can be seen from the above-average rainfall anomalies over part of the continent. Mediterranean Sea. Temperatures higher than normal. However, in the obscured phase, the probability of cold descent towards midlatitudes will increase.

Seasonal forecasts proposed by the Copernicus multiple system: precipitation
Seasonal forecasts proposed by the Copernicus multiple system: precipitation

Specifically for the different models, Ecmwf shows anticyclones that initiate according to the Atlantic ridges that develop over Greenland; However, with Ukmo, the December winter will be characterized by an Atlantic cyclonic circulation that develops into an Atlantic promontory. The Met Office and NCEPs will instead be NAO+ throughout the winter with anticyclones near Western Europe.

Winter will also be statistically vulnerable to global warming, It is modified by the eastern El Nino/QBo pair which increases the possibility of sudden warming events in the polar stratosphere. Currently, the stratosphere appears stronger from the climatology with the first conjunctions between the stratosphere and the troposphere. Mean winds at 10 hPa show a weakening during January when some members show inversion, which is typical for polar anticyclones in the stratosphere.

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