Study: The Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2030

The Arctic Circle could be free of sea ice from September 2030. This is demonstrated by a modeling study conducted by the University of Science and Technology in Pohang, South Korea, published in Nature Communications. Not even a low-emissions scenario will be able to prevent or slow these occurrences, about a decade earlier than expected, scientists estimate. These updated results highlight the significant impact of human activities on the Arctic and illustrate the importance of planning and adapting to an Arctic Circle that is seasonally free of sea ice in the near future.

Consequences of no sea ice

Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly across all seasons in recent decades, with the largest decline since 2000. The absence of sea ice in the Arctic will affect human communities and natural ecosystems inside and outside the Arctic Circle. For example, this could mean significant changes in marine activity, further accelerating the warming of the Arctic and altering the carbon cycle, the geochemical cycle through which carbon is exchanged between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and Earth’s atmosphere.

deepening

NASA obtains first satellite maps of Arctic sea ice

I study

To analyze the human contribution to the receding Arctic sea ice and project its future trajectory, Sung Ki-min, a professor at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea, and his colleagues used observational data from 1979 to 2019. The estimates, which the scientists noted, allowed a limitation in climate model simulations. . The research findings indicate that the human impact on the decrease in Arctic sea ice is visible throughout the year and can largely be attributed to rising greenhouse gas emissions. The contributions of aerosols and colloids in which liquids or solids disperse as gases, and natural factors, such as solar and volcanic activity, are found to be much less. “The Arctic could be free of sea ice in September by 2030-2050 under all emissions scenarios,” Min said. This contrasts with previous assessments, which were discussed in the group’s Sixth Assessment Report. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The United States has not envisioned an Arctic future free of summer sea ice with low emissions,” Maine said.