December 6, 2022

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Sebastiani, the spread of Covid in the provinces continues to rise

The spread of the Covid-19 epidemic is increasing in the Italian provinces, where there is an accelerated growth in 104 out of 107; In addition, counties with an infection rate of at least 50% in the past week increased from 42 to 71. This is indicated by the analyzes of mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Computing Applications “M.Picone”, of the National Research Council ( Cnr).

“An analysis of the weekly differences in the daily sequence of the total incidence of positives in 107 Italian provinces shows that compared to four days ago, the number of provinces in exponential growth increases from 102 to 104,” Sebastiani notes, adding that “only Vibo Valentia, Isernia and Enna.” The mathematician also notes that “the number of provinces where the infection rate has increased in the past seven days by at least 50% compared to the previous seven days has also increased from 42 to 71, and in four of them (Bologna, Pesaro, Urbino, Florence and Aosta) there is more than double the value It is very likely that the main reasons for the recent changes are the resumption of school activities and the arrival of fall, combined with the loss of people’s attention and the increased time since the last vaccination. Ending the obligation to use a mask on public transport will provide an additional contribution that can be measured in a week or two.”

The analysis also shows that the 30 counties with the highest rate, relative to population, “are all located in the north and center, while the 30 counties with the lowest rate are in the south and islands.” According to Sebastiani, “It is very likely that this difference is attributable to climatic factors and consequent differences between the average time spent in closed rooms.” Furthermore, of the first 30 districts, “only one has no weekly increase of more than 50% and of the last 30 districts only six. So – the mathematician notes – a positive relationship between incidence level and percentage increase (rate of increase in incidence) , as is easily expected from simple combinatorial mathematical arguments.”

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More intense circulation of SarsCoV2 virus in Italy has led to the growth of regular hospitalizations and suggests a future increase in intensive care as well, with the expected curve rising these days.

Sebastiani notes that “analysis of the weekly differences in the sequencing of hiring in intensive care wards” shows that in the next few days the average curve will begin to rise similar to what was expected and happened to normal wards. The exact translation is minimal. That will be possible with this week’s data (we may have already crossed the bottom line recently or be on top of it).”

At the regional level, continues the mathematician, it is evident that the employment curves of the ordinary departments are clearly increasing, with the exception of Liguria, Molise, Puglia, Sicily, Sardinia, Umbria and Valle d’Aosta. Sebastiani notes that in the last two regions, significant fluctuations are observed.

With regard to staffing levels in the regular administrations, the threshold of Abruzzo, Calabria, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Valle d’Aosta and the Autonomous Province of Trento exceeds the threshold of 10%, Umbria exceeds 15% and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano exceeds 20%. The analysis also indicates that employment percentages in Campania, Calabria and Emilia-Romagna are increasing at a rate of 0.1% per day; in Abruzzo, Piedmont, Autonomous Province of Trento, Lazio, Veneto, Tuscany and Lombardy by 0.2%; In Basilicata and the Marche it is 0.3%, in Friuli Venezia Giulia it is 0.6% per day, while the Autonomous Province of Bolzano has an average daily increase of an even greater rate, equal to approximately 1.4% per day

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