What will become of the Wagner group after its leaders are beheaded? This is the question that has remained unanswered in follower groups on Telegram as well as in global intelligence cables since the plane carrying (most likely) Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin and other prominent figures of the Russian militia crashed near Tver last August 23. Two months after attempting the “coup of the century” by leading a failed armed rebellion against the authority of Vladimir Putin, President Wagner has disappeared. He was eliminated on more than one suspicion on orders from the Kremlin because he dared to defy the Tsar, in pure KGB style. But until a few weeks ago, thousands of men were part of militias that had been raging for years from Syria to North Africa, even fighting ferociously in Ukraine. Despite the direct clash over strategies in Ukraine, Wagner’s “services” have so far formed the cornerstone of Russian power abroad, often appreciated by the African “clients” themselves. So what to do with this headless organization? According to the sources quoted by the journalist He presses Jacopo Iacoboni, the remaining Wagner leaders will officially answer the question between tomorrow and the day after (8/9 September), at the “Council of Commanders” of the militia held at the Molkino base, the traditional military headquarters of the group. Several leaders who survived the plane crash between Moscow and St. Petersburg have already arrived at the base in the Krasnodar region that will host the meeting. However, he will mainly be asked to ratify decisions that Prigozhin himself had “prepared,” in his detailed will about whose provisions Iacoboni claims to have gathered important information.
A system of governance to save Wagner
Thus Wagner’s new commander-in-chief would be Anton Ilizarov, code name “Lotus”. A disgraced former Russian Army captain, at the center of a brilliant career, he was “rediscovered” as Wagner’s commander by Prigozhin in 2016, who sent him to command precision operations in all the theaters of war it faced: from Syria to the Central African Republic, from Libya to Ukraine. , where it is believed that it was Ilizarov who led the invasion of the city of Solidar. Military exploits that seem to have earned him the state honor of “Hero of Russia” in 2022, and certainly the unconditional appreciation of Prigozhin, whom he would literally point to as his successor at the head of (para)military operations. However, the empire built by the former “Putin chef” went far beyond military activities and also included diverse and profitable business activities: managing revenues from services provided to the four corners of the planet by the militia itself, of course, but also the multifaceted business of the Concorde Group. , which he founded in the 1990s in St. Petersburg starting as a hot dog chain and grew over the years under the Kremlin. Prigozhin also seems to have been concerned about this second “line of action,” referring in this case also to the designated successor: his son Pavel, who he recalls as printing“He knows all the secrets and was himself part of Wagner in Syria.” What the “new” Wagner is expected to lead (or what will remain of it after the departure of a number of its fighters, which is currently difficult to estimate), is therefore a kind of dual government, composed of two men “so closely linked that it is difficult to imagine fractures between them.”
Africa money
As for the tasks of the Wagner Group, it finally seems that Prigozhin took care to point out in his will that the militia is still stubbornly operating in Africa, where it is (was?) most likely located. Solid work Also on the economic level. There is a clear concern in the mind of the “last” Prigozhin, if it is true that his last mission, a few hours before his death, was in Africa to look after/defend Wagner’s interests. However, it remains uncertain whether the group’s new leaders will be able to honor this last wish, given increasing competition from other mercenary companies to which the Kremlin’s interest now appears to have turned: in particular Redut and Convoy, which will do so. They enjoy financial support from two oligarchs close to Putin. If they are confirmed as new leaders of the group, Ilizarov and Prigozhin Jr. will have to fight first and foremost to ensure that Wagner survives its previous success, which others are now emulating.
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