New fuel prices (diesel and petrol) set under strict European guidelines (and forecast for September)

New fuel prices (diesel and petrol) set under strict European guidelines (and forecast for September)

there New European directive Law No. 959 of 2023 of the House of Representatives and the Council introduces an important reform to the ETS (Emissions Trading System) system that governs the exchange of carbon dioxide emissions allowances. This system represents a market that since 2005 has allowed companies in some specific energy and industrial sectors to obtain permission to emit pollutants through the purchase of these quotas. This is a measure that can have a significant impact on motorists. here because:

  • What changes with the new European directive?
  • How do gasoline and fuel prices change?

What changes with the new European Directive?

The new directive extends to the maritime transport sector and introduces a new emissions market dedicated to domestic heating and road transport. the oil companies They will be required to pay for the CO2 emissions resulting from fuel production, but the additional cost will inevitably pass through to the final price of petrol and diesel. The system will go into effect in 2027, with worrisome predictions. This is a direct hit for European motorists.

The first step in understanding risks is to explain the CO2 credit mechanism, which relies on companies investing in projects to protect the environment and capture or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and obtain Stock market or green stocks which are regularly put up for sale. These securities are purchased by companies that, due to their production activities, generate large amounts of carbon dioxide and therefore have emissions debts. Purchasing and paying these credits in euros per ton of CO2 offsets total emissions, allowing companies to continue emitting.

How do gasoline and fuel prices change?

The new EU directive now also covers fuel consumption on a large scale. Officially, it should be implemented by the Italian State and provide for some preventive measures for motorists and for the most vulnerable groups of society, through the creation of a Social Climate Fund for interventions aimed at stabilizing prices. The envisaged measures remain quite general, eg The ban on fuel suppliers To transfer more than half of the costs to the final consumers. In the context of financial investments, it is orders of magnitude that matter more than percentages, which is expected to grow rapidly in the new discrete market for trucking credits.

The European institutions aim to set the new price for CO2 quotas at a maximum of 45 euros per ton, which equates to an additional cost of 10 cents per liter of gasoline and 12 cents per liter of diesel. Given the price evolution in the current ETS market, worrying scenarios lie ahead. European auctions saw the price of allowances increase from €8.34 per tonne in January 2018 to an average of €86.17 expected for 2023 and €96.19 for 2024, according to an analysis by Reuters. the price forecast Averages in 2025 will reach 104.84 euros per tonne.

According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency The stock price in the new market It will involve a much larger number of operators than the current system, which will increase demand and thus the prices of the shares offered for sale, since there are not enough companies engaged in generating it through environmental projects that require ever longer times to make it. This huge growth in demand could raise the price of a ton of carbon dioxide to 200 euros, or 53 cents per liter of diesel and 47 cents per liter of gasoline. Therefore, if this increase is applied to current average fuel prices, the price of petrol will rise to €2.288 per litre, while diesel will reach €2.191 per litre, after deducting any taxes.

Petrol and diesel price forecasts for September

Pending new guidance, fuel prices are unfortunately supposed to rise again in September, after a certain stabilization in the first few days of the month, and many commentators are predicting a downward trend in the next few weeks.

It seems that everything has changed since yesterday, when OPEC and Russia decided to intervene in oil extraction, reducing it which inevitably led to a rise in diesel and gasoline prices, which could make the 200 euro bonus an almost useless study by the Meloni government to help citizens. Above all, it is the less wealthy who pay the costs of refueling their cars.

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