MadridThe announcement of Puigdemont's bid in the Catalan elections has practically monopolized political attention in Madrid since Thursday afternoon, with inclusions in the news about the course of the novel in installments related to the President of the Madrid Region, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and the government. Her partner's tax fraud, now actually prosecuted. The latter will not have serious consequences at the moment, because it has not been proven that the friend was dealing with the regional administration and because the absolute majority of the People's Party in Madrid is so comfortable that it can tolerate almost anything. On the other hand, the Catalan issue is what we call a live ball, which could eventually end up surfacing or destroying all the windows of Pedro Sánchez's unstable legislature. What is clear from the beginning is Puigdemont's determination and the new challenge it poses to the state in general and the socialist government in particular. Without diminishing the pulse that the ERC also raised, presenting them from the beginning as weak and submissive members of the pro-independence family, now much less motivated than they were in 2017. The purpose of reviving this spirit of rebellion is what permeated the show. Candidate Puigdemont's party, which I don't know if he will get away with because things have changed, as opinion polls show, in the perceptions of Catalan society in the last six years.
This factor, that social warmth is not the same, raises the first fundamental difference with what we experienced then. It will not be easy for him to rally his forces on terms that will facilitate his return, and eventually his assumption of the position of Parliament, because placing himself in the middle of the battlefield has its disadvantage, which is that as soon as you arrive everyone will be shooting at you. We have already seen how long it took the ERC to reject the proposal to pool an amount of assets with Junts. It must be said that Puigdemont launched a rhetorical initiative in order not to say it, but without the slightest hope that leftists will see it with good eyes. Pere Aragonés had just finished his role at one of the Spanish capital's signature breakfasts, where people go to rub each other's backs, and he could go no further than proposing a unique financing system for Catalonia, in line with the Basque Country Music Concert and the other major franchise in This is the case in the peninsula, which the people of Navarre enjoy.
It was undoubtedly a bad coincidence. I say this because Aragonés' claims lasted two minutes in the hands of the PSOE, which threw them into the trash in the first corner. It is unfortunate, because the proposal, which is not new, deserves attention and discussion, even out of courtesy. But First Vice President of the Government and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, made it clear that negotiations on the new regional financing system – if they actually begin one day – will be “multilateral.” As much as it says nothing about single systems. I was reminded of that supposedly historic visit by Artur Mas to Mariano Rajoy, in which he told him that refusing to accept individual treatment of Catalan finances would have consequences, and it did, as the process developed.
Political and judicial risks for the former president
This warning did not help much, as we see, and the worst thing about the new attempt to find a more favorable situation within the autonomous state was that it only had the effect of provoking reactions of disapproval. Those who made the journey to independence a journey of no return have confirmed their false expectations that dialogue with the government has any chance of reaching important settlements. But the big question is whether what Puigdemont suggests is a more realistic alternative. Knocking on the government's door with specific proposals does not guarantee any progress, but trying to repeat the common thread with 2017 does not hold better expectations either. A referendum on self-determination will not be held by the Socialist Workers' Party, as the unilateral method has proven to go no further. Specifically in the plenary session of the Supreme Court, even if the crime of sedition disappears. It also leads to the application of Article 155 of the Constitution.
All this must be taken into account by the voter on May 12. There is no easy way. The question is which of the answers that Catalonia could offer at the ballot box would be most useful for strengthening the institutions through which it can continue to work on increasing autonomy. La Moncloa will have to measure his steps well, but it would not be surprising if Pedro Sanchez wants to get directly involved in the electoral race through several events. This was already evident in his first reactions, last Friday, when he focused all of his messages on the fact that Catalonia must decide whether it wants to “look to the past or the future.” He did all this by emphasizing that the second option, the option of the future, was represented exclusively by his candidate, Salvador Illa, while continuing to bet that he would get a better result than the polls predicted as the first force. At 12 p.m. The president of Castile La Mancha, Emiliano García Page, who is always at the forefront, said that if Puigdemont returns “to try, the ridicule to which we expose ourselves will be historic.” In short, the challenge facing the Junts leader is twofold, because firstly he will have to be able to excite people, but secondly, he will have to know what to do next if he gains the degree of trust he aspires to.
In any case, the most important risk for Puigdemont, in the short and medium term, is the result of judges, especially the Supreme Court, applying the amnesty law when it enters into force. This could happen around June, which could make it difficult for him to attend Parliament, if he already has options to choose the position. The Constitutional Court said that this type of nomination must be defended personally. At the same time, there may be consultations with the European judiciary – as well as the Supreme Court, for example – which means suspending the effectiveness of the amnesty. All this will constitute a condition for Puigdemont's campaign, which is unusual for this set of circumstances and potentially crucial for Catalan society and for the continuity of the state legislature on acceptable terms.
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