February 3, 2023

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Fitch cuts the US and China’s GDP estimates for 2023, but improves those for Italy

Less optimistic about the world but more optimistic about Italy. They are possibilities Fitch The rating agency according to which the global economy will slow next year due to the intensification of the fight against inflation by central banks, coupled with the deterioration of the prospects for the Chinese real estate market, which will also grow less than expected.

Global GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2023

Fitch expects the global economy to grow by 1.4% next year instead of the 1.7% shown in September. The GDP forecasts for the world’s two largest economies have been significantly revised downward. Economie United State It will show an advance of only 0.2% instead of 0.5% mainly due to the increase in interest rates in feed it. in the case instead of Chinathe downgrade on estimates from 4.5% to 4.1%, primarily due to sector repercussions buildings.

Eurozone estimates have been revised upwards. But watch out for core inflation

Small consolation insteadEuro-zone , Where, according to Fitch, GDP should grow by 0.2% instead of declining by 0.1%. The ratings agency cites easing of the energy and gas supply crisis to support the upward appreciation, even if it’s mostly interest rate increases by the European Central Bank that don’t help. As for the pricesas already imagined by the latest Eurostat data on inflation (+ 10.6%), according to the rating agency, pressure on the core component (+ 5.7% in the eurozone in November) will remain more stable.

Fitch improved estimates for Italy

In case‘Italia, GDP in 2023 will decline not by 0.7%, but by 0.1%. “The economy has been somewhat more resilient to the energy shock,” with growth of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter, Fitch highlighted. “That is true Income is used once The number of households has decreased since the fourth quarter of 2021, but has been supported by the government with programs to offset higher energy bills. We have raised our short-term inflation forecast, but there will likely be a monthly deflationary trend that will reduce inflation from this peak in the first half of 2023. (All rights reserved)

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