While getting ready for a new NBA season, one of my favorite things to do is look at the win total prediction for each team that sports books make and then make over/under picks on whether the team will exceed or fall or short of expectations.
As always, it’s an excruciatingly tough process, even though I’m not actually putting money down on any of these picks. In fact if I actually was putting real money down, I’m not even sure I could ever make a pick, I’d be so nervous. But as it is, this is an exercise for fun, and looking back at the end of the year and seeing how I did is always cool.
(These win totals were from the sports book Bovada. It was accessed Saturday, October 26. If lines have been updated, it was after this writing.)
Atlanta Hawks – 39.5 wins – Over
Boston Celtics – 27.5 – Under
Brooklyn Nets – 52.5 – Over
Charlotte Bobcats – 26.5 – Over
This pick might be surprising, but I guess I can make this my bold prediction. They won 21 games last year, so they just have to improve by 6 wins. Considering the addition of Al Jefferson, the assumed improvement of Kemba Walker, and the underrated Gerald Henderson putting in another solid season; 6 additional wins doesn’t seem impossible. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, winning more games might not be in their best interest this year.
Chicago Bulls - 56.5 – Under
Cleveland Cavaliers – 40.5 – Over
Detroit Pistons – 40.5 – Over
Indiana Pacers – 54.5 – Under
Miami Heat – 61.5 – Over
Milwaukee Bucks – 28.5 – Over
New York Knicks – 49.5 – Under
Orlando Magic – 23.5 – Over
Philadelphia 76ers – 17.5 – Under
Toronto Raptors – 35.5 – Over
This was one of the easier picks for me. The Raptors got to 34 wins last year, and that was without a full season of Rudy Gay. Now, regardless of your thoughts on Gay, he’s certainly an upgrade over Landry Fields and Mickael Pietrus, who started far too many games for the Raptors last year. Sure it isn’t a roster that’s going to get 45-50 wins, but 36 wins hits the over, and they should get there without too much trouble.
Washington Wizards – 39.5 – Over