December 7, 2022

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Will Congress change, will US foreign policy change?

The midterm elections provide for a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, as well as the defeat of candidates more hawkish than Trump. Good news for Ukraine, which will continue to receive support and pluralism, which will not enter again into the crisis of the Trump years. Top Dossiers, From Trade to Iran, With Commentary by Atlantic Council Experts

How will the upcoming Congress affect US policy on Ukraine, China, the economy and many other hot topics? This is the question he tried to answerAtlantic CouncilWorld Health Organization published A collection of opinions from a variety of experts on various topics.

The premise of this report is that the election results mid term The Democratic Party is shown to hold a majority, albeit narrow, in the Senate; The Republican Party won the majority of seats in the House of Representatives.

Ukraine

Suspension John Herbst, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, highlights how the so-called “red wave,” a landslide Republican victory, did not materialize, thus erasing suspicions that the more popular candidates might push for a lesser commitment from Washington to support Kyiv. .

This would greatly reassure the Ukrainians, whose existence depends primarily on American aid. Eastern European countries such as Romania, Poland and the Baltic states can count on maintaining their status as the vanguard of NATO’s eastern flank. Western European countries can continue to spend less on defense by taking advantage of the US umbrella.

pluralism and democracy

Christopher Scallopapreviously Principal Director for Europe and NATO Policy In the Pentagon, how the results mid term Giving some relief even to those who fear for the health of NATO and multilateralism in general. Presidency years Donald Trump It is remembered as a Brussels nightmare, both for security policies and for trade and diplomacy. So much so that some European officials went to Washington before the election, seeking advice on how to manage a potential resurgence of those dynamics.

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Moreover, the results of the elections showed their weakness appeal practiced by Moscow on the population of the United States, despite pre-election ultimatums. He also breathes a sigh of relief at the poor electoral results of the Arab Republic of Egypt Elections denya sign of the good health of American democracy.

Restoring relations with Europe was one of the pillars of these two years of administration Biden, included in the foreign policy program for the revival of multilateralism. Even comments Rachel Rizzoa senior fellow at Europe CenterUnderlining how Germany increased its defense spending, the European energy system dramatically reduced its exposure to Russia, and Poland extracted from the United States the promise of permanent deployment of American troops in the country.

Of course, it will be necessary to see what effect European accusations of protectionism will have against the law of deinflation; In addition to the fact that if Ukraine suffers military defeats in the future, Congress can point the finger at European countries for not doing enough. In this sense, according to Rizzo, to maintain excellent relations, it will be important for Europe to continue to pay attention to strategic issues in order to play a more forward-looking role as a world power.

China

according to Kate Conklina former US national security official, Republicans are likely to use the House majority, especially the Foreign Affairs Committee, to attack the White House on technology policies with China.

Conklin points out that in 2021 alone, the Bureau of Industry and Security (Bis) approved the export of $61 billion worth of supposedly blacklisted technology. An item that could potentially be used as leverage against Biden. In general, the focus will be on technological competition, on flexibility supply chains and the overall effectiveness of presidential export control strategies.

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The new Chamber could make significant changes, starting with current proposals that include bureaucratic strengthening of Bis, linking it directly to the Bureau, or creating a new intelligence branch within the system.

In general, the Republican-led House of Representatives will view technology competition between the United States and China as a top priority. So we should expect the introduction of new laws that will have a significant impact on research security and resilient trade supply chains.

Iran

Barbara Slavinboss Iran Future InitiativeHe believes that Congress is still unable to prevent an Iranian nuclear deal if it materializes. Moreover, the current administration is already very active in supporting Iranian protesters and in opposing Iran’s supply of drones and missiles to Ukraine.

House Republicans expected to adopt more aggressive rhetoric, echoing ‘hawk’ Benjamin Netanyahu, just re-elected Prime Minister of Israel. For Netanyahu, Iran remains a useful cover and a way to divert attention from Israeli-Palestinian tensions and US criticism of the government’s treatment of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs.

Latin america

according to Jason MarczakSenior Manager Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin AmericaCongress must overcome divisions to adopt a bipartisan strategy by quickly appointing US ambassadors to the continent. The expert notes that the People’s Republic of China plays a very active role in the “backyard” of the United States and that every vacuum left by Washington is filled by Beijing.

Disagreements will be present over the Venezuelan issue and the president Nicolas Maduro. The leader is taking advantage of the energy crisis to present himself as a reliable source of fossil fuels, and relaunching his international profile with some success, both in Latin America and abroad.

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Business

Dan NgreaThe former State Department Special Representative on Trade, noted that common ground is likely to be found in this area given that the Trump and Biden administrations have not been enthusiastic about new preferential trade deals.

A Republican-run House would support economic partnerships that bring clear benefits to the citizens of the United States. For example, the share of the partner that results from the techniques Friends supportany movement supply chains From China to friendly countries that offer economic incentives to American companies.