weather forecast. Hurricanes Intensify, Climate Changes Rapidly, What the Science Says « 3B Meteo

weather forecast.  Hurricanes Intensify, Climate Changes Rapidly, What the Science Says « 3B Meteo
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Hurricane Adalia made landfall in the United States of America as a Category 3 Hurricane. But the peculiarity lies in the fact that this hurricane enters the list of hurricanes that intensified quickly before touching the ground, as it moved from Category 1 to Category 4 within 24 hours. The rapid intensification means that maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots in 24 hours.

Sixteen of the twenty hurricanes intensified rapidly in the Atlantic Ocean basin, including the Gulf of Mexico In the period 2021-2022. Taking the Gulf of Mexico as a reference, in the period 2017-2023 there were eight storms that intensified quickly to Category 4 (210 km/h) and caused at least $500 billion in damage and more than 3,000 casualties. The following is a list of the most important storms that dominated the Gulf during this period. With M major events affecting the mainland, besides the class involved. Worryingly, 5 of these storms intensified rapidly in the past 5 years.

Harvey 2017, M, 4

Michael 2018, M, 5

Irma 2017AD, 4

delta 2020,

Laura 2020 AD, 4

Zeta 2020 AD, 3

Edda 2021 AD, 4

Ian 2022AD, 4

Idalia 2023 AD, 3

The previous most active period was 2004-2008, with 8 relegations of strength equal to or greater than Class 2.

Evan 2004 AD, 3

Charlie 2004, AD, 3

Rita 2005, M, 3

Wilma 2005 AD, 3

Dennis 2005 AD, 3

Katrina 2005 AD, 3

Gustav 2008

ike 2008,

On the other hand, the period 2009-2016 was less active.

The effect of global warming on hurricane numbers is still uncertain; However, some studies point to the fact that human-induced climate change can affect precisely through its rapid intensification (Bhatia et al, Klotzbach et al)

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The Gulf of Mexico is warmer than average this year A continuation of the long-term trend showing a tendency for a temperature increase of +0.84°C/100 years. This is consistent with the long-term trend of global ocean temperatures warming by about 1°C since preindustrial times. The warming of the oceans will be the result of a combination of natural factors and human influence.

Hurricanes usually form over very warm waters from which they derive steam and energy. Global warming creates conditions that allow water to evaporate faster, but this vapor is energy that a cyclone consumes. In a warmer world, the efficiency of these heat engines would increase, an efficiency that would imply wind intensification of more than 50 km/h in 24 hours. The worst nightmare for residents exposed to these phenomena is going to bed with the arrival of a Category 2 alert and waking up with a Category 5 alert. Hurricanes that intensify quickly are actually very concerning; They can easily catch coastal residents by surprise, giving them little time to deal with the problems associated with their impact.


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