The Russo-Ukrainian war, dependence on Moscow and the risk of ending up among the “enemies”: this is how the line of the Central Asian republics changed

The Russo-Ukrainian war, dependence on Moscow and the risk of ending up among the “enemies”: this is how the line of the Central Asian republics changed

Before the vote on his expulsion from the Human Rights CouncilUnited nationswhich then happened, according to some rumors, the Russia He was distributing a note among some advisors to warn that he would consider it one hostile movement Vote for or even a simple vote refrain. The message that, looking at the result of the vote, seems to have been received very clearly Middle Asia. If at the beginning of March a proposal condemning the Russian invasionUkraine have seen KazakhstanKyrgyzstan h Tajikistan to refrain e Uzbekistan And Turkmenistan Don’t vote, the scenario has reversed a little over a month later. On April 7, in fact, between 24 opposing countries Moscow expelled from the body to protect human rights In the United Nations, there are four out of 5 Central Asian republics, with the usual isolationism of Turkmenistan, which has avoided expressing itself.

This obvious change of line is related above all to the great change economic dependency Central Asia from Russia. It is no coincidence that the decision to oppose Moscow’s expulsion from the council by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan came just days after the announcement of the Russian Foreign Minister. Sergey Lavrov from the introduction restrictions The possibility of obtaining an entry visa for citizens of countries considered “hostile”. The causality seems clear, considering that every year millions of workers leave the Central Asian region in search of a career, with the great Russian urban centers being their preferred destination, flies And Saint Petersburg Total. In other words, the region’s governments cannot afford to end up in list of “bad guys” The Kremlin. Because if this happens, in addition to the economic repercussions, perhaps they will have to deal with internal discontent over poverty caused by the disruption of the lifeline formed by the influx of remittances sent home. The flow which, in any case, according to many estimates, is set to decrease significantly due to Penalties Against Russia and the collapse rubles.

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However, it must be said that up to now there were many inclinations made by some Central Asian republics against the iron northern ally. From this point of view, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan occupied the front line. they economic projection International – especially Kazakh – led their governments to try to distance themselves from the Kremlin. While she was trying not to completely alienate Moscow’s interests, the obvious positions were different. At the end of March, for example, the Kazakh Deputy Foreign Minister gave an interview in which he stated that Kazakhstan was ready to welcome comp Russia leaves because of sanctions and that his country does not want to be forced behind a new country iron curtain. A few days later, another senior Kazakh official in the Presidential Cabinet reiterated his country’s support and readiness for Ukraine’s territorial integrity Nur Sultan To fully comply with the sanctions imposed on Russia. On the other hand, further demonstration of Kazakhstan’s need to find a difficult one diplomatic balanceA few hours later, the Kazakh president, TokayevHad a phone conversation with put it in Which showed bias about the need for an agreement that Ukraine would remain neutral.

Another regional giant, Uzbekistan, has also taken steps to try to disengage Russian rhetoric. Tashkent Foreign Minister Kamilov stressed his country’s support forland unit And the independence of Ukraine called for the immediate cessation ofarmed intervention. The head of Uzbek diplomacy, however, ended up in the middle of the yellow. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a few hours after his speech, Kamilov was forced to leave Uzbekistan to submit medical treatments In an unspecified foreign country. But according to some unconfirmed rumors, his departure from the scene would have been associated with the intense anger of the Kremlin due to this apparent distance from Russia.
Instead, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were much more isolated, with the latter supporting Moscow at the beginning of the Russian invasion, a position that was later partially restored. Their caution is linked to a heavy reliance on Transferswhich weighs about a third Gross domestic product In general for all of them. To antagonize Russia in one Post-pandemic phase which, as we have already seen, the money flow is set to drop dramatically and prices to rise, in their case, that could mean having to deal with economic disaster household.

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Given the regional and geopolitical dimensions, it is clear that the April 7 vote at the United Nations is indicative of the enormous weight that Moscow still wields in the Central Asian region. Certainly, the Chinathanks to its greatness too Investments And loansPerhaps Russia was overthrown as the first business partner of the region, but the Federation retains economic, political, and military influence that cannot be completely replaced. Or rather, there will be a way, at least from an economic point of view. If the somewhat authoritarian regimes in the region are finally able to modernize their economies and ensure a career future For the millions of citizens who are forced to emigrate to Russia every year, the influence of the latter can be reduced. Kind of like whatEurope He is trying hard to succeed energy front To get rid of addiction natural gas who comes from Moscow. But the road in Central Asia, and not only for the great mountain ranges of which it is a part, seems even more uphill.

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