The right-wing theory that will define 2024

No wars with Donald Trump. Let’s get ready to hear this slogan. He will accompany us throughout the journey 2024 US election campaign. It may sound crude and simplistic, but we must admit that it contains a kernel of truth: the Trump presidency has not seen major conflicts flare up, and Ukraine and Israel have imploded under Joe Biden. Naturally, this is evidence that his foreign policy was more effective than the former Republican president.

At the same time for The sudden purge reassures Zelensky: Trump’s man in Congress, new House Speaker Mike Johnson, announces: We will not abandon the Ukrainians, Putin must not win. It is a reassuring message, at least in part (we will see the details), given the isolationist tendency of the Trump right.

Foreign policy is not usually decided by elections. There are exceptions: The Vietnam War of 1968, and the taking of American hostages at the Tehran embassy during the Khomeini Revolution in Iran in 1979, overshadowed the nominations of Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter, Democrats (the former decided not to run again, and the latter was defeated). Written by Ronald Reagan). Right now, neither Ukraine nor the Middle East influence the American people enough to seem decisive. Between now and next November, who knows. In any case, the visibility of international crises is rising, with impacts on both sides: we only have to look at their scale Gaza divides the democratic left Between supporters of Israel and supporters of the Palestinians. Therefore, foreign policy is likely to be talked about more than usual during the 2024 campaign.

Trump keeps A large margin of advantage over other candidates For the Republican nomination. In some polls Slightly higher than Joe Biden For the final duel. Therefore, we should pay attention to his positions on the major crises at this moment. In detail, as always, he is able to say things that are shocking, perhaps even ridiculous for a part of his base: in order to attack Biden from time to time, he glorified Putin and even Hamas.

but The general reasoning he presents is not very strange. Under his presidency there has been no major conflict, nothing to compare to the global chaos that characterizes President Biden. Putin waited until the democrat returned To the White House for invading Ukraine, as well It invaded Crimea during Barack Obama’s presidency (Which Trump blames for other mistakes or weaknesses, from Libya to Syria.)

Iran and its armed wing, Hamas, inflicted “9/11” on Israel under Biden. Kim Jong Un has resumed missile testing Which threatens South Korea and Japan. The People’s Liberation Army under the orders of Xi Jinping shows an escalation in aggressive actions against Taiwan and against Filipino And against other allies of America, they even came close to having accidents with American military aircraft. Let us leave aside Trump’s arrogance, narcissism, arrogance, and incompetence; The conclusion reached by many Republicans This appears to be based on facts: the world was less dangerous and less stable in the four-year period from January 2017 to December 2020. It is clear that Trump was more credible.

In no particular order, Trump supporters remember the following facts. Kim Jong Un may be crazy and a criminal, but in his arrogance he was content with the honor that Trump granted him by meeting him face to face at the Singapore summit, and perhaps on the other hand, he was… Scared of threats Trump is destroying North Korea under a firestorm; In fact, his provocations had a period of moderation.

Iran, for daring to attack some US bases in the Middle East, was punished at the beginning of January 2020 by killing General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the paramilitary forces in Tehran. Abraham AccordsWith important Islamic countries recognizing Israel (the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan), They were brought to port under the command of Mike Pompeo Trump’s Secretary of State. The American withdrawal from Afghanistan was negotiated by the Trump administration in Qatar with the leaders of the Taliban movement and finally ended a war that lasted twenty years. Then it was Biden’s inept and clumsy app To turn this withdrawal from Kabul into a devastating disaster.

Trump has kept Putin and Xi at bay With a strange mixture: on the one hand supporting autocrats with the respect and even admiration that a “strong man” can offer his peers; On the other hand with The unpredictability created by aggressive language From Trump. (In this regard, the “mad leader theory” that was already popular during Richard Nixon’s presidency was revived: we make our enemies believe that I have lost my mind, that I can press the nuclear button first, in order to make them more cautious.)

the Partial reconstructions are questionableIndividual facts may be interpreted differently. Behind Trump’s foreign policy we can glimpse a pragmatic doctrine typical of conservative thought. Realpolitik in a world of hostility and great powers would recommend treating rivals with respect, recognizing each other’s spheres of influence, and at the same time arming oneself to the teeth to defend one’s vital interests. Trump is an isolationist But he did not spare the resources of his armed forces. Skeptical about NATOShe does not believe in the value of alliances, but she has invested in her own army. The theory that America’s enemies rejoice when there is a Democrat in the White House will be used to attack Biden on what was previously his strength: his experience in the international sphere. More than Ukraine The crisis in the Middle East may undermine Biden’s image as a competent leader on global issues.

For Ukraine, all will not be lost if Trump is re-elected. The Republican Party recently emerged from a long parliamentary crisis, and was able, after several failed attempts, to elect a new Speaker of the House of Representatives. It is a more important position than our Speaker of the House, because of the level of authority he exercises in Washington over the parliamentary business agenda and thus over all budget laws. Mike Johnson electedHe was an iron Trumpist Victory for the former president Confirming the control that Donald exercises over much of the Grand Old Party. But Johnson declared in his first interview that the war in Ukraine was one of his top priorities. He added: We cannot allow Putin to win in Ukraine, because I do not think he will stop there, and this will likely encourage China to move against Taiwan. we are worried. We will not abandon them.

As a simple representative Johnson had refused to vote on the latest aid package for KievBut once he became Speaker of the House his language changed. While it is true that he does not want to launch the maximum aid package requested by Biden, which brings together Ukraine and Israel in the same spending package. Therefore, Zelensky will be subject to stricter scrutiny by the leadership of the new republic. But it was not abandoned.