September 30, 2022

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The red lines of the United States and Russia could fuel Kosovo

The Kosovo he is there Opening the Balkan race. The vein directly connected to the core of the powder keg in Europe serposphere, which can give and take life and can allow those who seize it and regulate its blood flow to dominate the Balkans. Geostrategy, a forgotten system in post-historic Europe, in its pure state. Whoever controls Kosovo, of course, is expectedPanosphereThat is, the microcosm of a rising civilization depends on it Tirana Triangle Pristina Skopje Born from the ashes of Yugoslavia, on a hunch United State It is, in turn, a multi-purpose and multi-directional launching pad.

Because the albanosphere can be many things: a bridgehead for further expansion of the Balkans, a container for centrifugal forces and a coolant for productive chaos. There has been no turning back since 2008, because independent Kosovo is pin from the entire US agenda for the Balkans, but nothing prevents the vanquished from questioning some points of defeat suffered or, at least, from trying. Especially if the winner, the axis of Belgrade and Moscow, has at his disposal clowns: the The Serbian issue in Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe Inter-ethnic rivalry in North Macedonia And the Kosovo’s Serb-majority provinces.

Chess game between Moscow and Washington

There has been no turning back since 2008, not even since 2006 – the referendum on independence the black Mountain, full of illusions and alleged fraud, which denied Serbia (and Russia) access to the sea – but something could (still) be done, as long as demography permits, and that is damage to property seized by the United States in Yugoslavia previous. The rationale behind the former Yugoslavia agenda for Russia is driven by economics: Achieve maximum results with minimum effort. Therefore it is necessary to contract to immediately create common problems with collaborators of the Kremlin: Serb separatists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Yugo-nostalgia in Serbia, residents of North Mitrovica, Leposavic, Zvecan and Zubin Potok in Kosovo, Slavs in North Macedonia.

Russians, like good chess players, leave nothing to chance and every move is thought out with the mind on the next. Banja Luka, Belgrade, Pristina and Skopje are nothing but useful pawns in the search for checkmate, which is not to reoccupy the Balkans, but to destabilize them. Because awakening the Balkan ghosts is equivalent to diverting NATO’s attention and resources from the Baltic Sea, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Black Sea, as well as making upkeep and maintenance costs in their empire’s Balkan province higher relative to their empire. United State. All this, by outsourcing to third parties, at a more than sustainable price.

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Each move, within Russia’s major counterattack, follows a precise pattern. Exploit weaknesses in the Bosnian multinational system to prevent a worsening of the military blockade of Serbia, which would gain population, land, and resources from downsized Bosnia. Exploiting the more right-wing elements in Serbian politics to slow down the frightening process of Westernization of Belgrade. Feeding inter-ethnic rivalries in North Macedonia, a country divided between Bulgarians, Serbs, and Albanians Capitalization of Orthodox Issues in Montenegroto weaken the Balkan side of NATO.

The United States, since the European Union did not arrive, could even benefit from redrawing the borders of what remained of dissolved Yugoslavia. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the most disturbing part of the territory will cease and the veto to join NATO will be dropped. Kosovo, one of the pillars of the Albanosphere, will lose 10% of its territory and is the cause of 90% of its security problems. Serbia, via Bosnia and Kosovo, can be drawn to the West. But it is not that simple. They will serve, in addition to Realpolitikvery strong political will on both sides and, last but not least, the support of the peoples affected by these changes – three elements, so far, are missing.

Kosovo: Washington’s red line, Moscow’s lust

Technical trials of the proxy war in Kosovo have been taking place since September 2021, since the third most serious ethnic and anti-government incident in the short history of Kosovo took place in the four Serb-majority provinces – after the 2008 uprising. And the 2011-13 red biennial period. The brief and intense demonstrations at the end of July 2022 frightened European and American viewers, perhaps due to the influence of Ukraine – the fear, in some irrational ways, of being in front of an audience. For war a reason for A conflict of great proportions whenever there is tension in a sensitive theater – but they are back in record time.

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If this is true Longa Manos He was there, then stepped in to defuse it. Between the central government of Kosovo and the northern Serb-majority provinces, since the end of July, the icy winds of cold peace have receded again. Climate in place since 2008. A reflection of a fragile and unstable equilibrium that could collapse sooner or later. With potentially devastating consequences for the former Yugoslav neighborhood – a possible domino effect between Banja Luka and Skopje – and to a large extent the entire Old Continent.

It’s not war time yet

The reason the House of Cards still exists is paradoxRussia, via Serbia, could set fire once and for all in the four northern provinces of Kosovo, knowing they are well armed and anticipating an avalanche between Banja Luka, Skopje and beyond. But flashbacks can be unquenchable. Because Pristina is where the world was one step away from World War III in 1999. Because Washington can respond symmetrically to the violation of its red line, its possession of skills and tools, which leads to a dangerous vertical escalation based on the outbreak of multiple crises.

An eye for an eye that can blind both sides. If at the end of July we witnessed Longa Manus’ intervention in the Serbia and Kosovar crisis, everything indicates that, except for the propaganda in question, that hand entered to calm the spirits. It did so because of that irony that constantly exposes Kosovo to the cravings of Serbs and Russia which, however, makes it insurmountable. Because if Kosovo, the “Taiwan of the Balkans,” is skipped, Europe could de facto become home to a proxy war between the West and Russia far worse than the war in Ukraine. Russia reminded the United States of its papers in September 2021. The United States responded in June 2022, during the war in Ukraine, Orders an eloquent closure of Serbia’s airspace who prevented Serge Lavrov To go there on a trip is on the agenda. But Lavrov was the finger, the Kosovo moon.

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The White House, which had made Serbia inaccessible for a whole day, wanted to send a message to the Kremlin, apparently or for a moment, that Kosovo is and remains the red line of NATO, because it is the backbone of NATO. grand strategy Stars and Stripes in the Balkans. And if there was a large-scale arson in Piana de Merli, like a war or strife in the northern provinces, then Moscow would have no way to supply the Serbian ally with weapons, advisers and mercenaries. Warning had the desired effect. at the moment. However, the exacerbation of competition between the great powers could also bring down the taboo of ostracizing Serbia and Kosovo. Because if it is true that one red line is as good as the other, then both the United States and Russia may one day have the excuse or the passion to take the longer step and attempt the most dangerous risk.

The first to plunge Moscow into a proxy war that must be fought at all costs, but which is difficult to sustain because of NATO’s shield around Belgrade. The second, if cornered at home or in a neighboring country, would distract Washington into the most porous part of its European empire. With Europe in the middle, elephants crush tormenting grass, as they have since World War II.