The American economy is recovering, but the siege of the ballot boxes continues: This is how Biden arrives at the meeting with Xi

The American economy is recovering, but the siege of the ballot boxes continues: This is how Biden arrives at the meeting with Xi

The day of the meeting has come, which will witness the thaw, after the harsh climate that prevailed in recent months. Joe Biden And Xi Jinping introduce themselves to San Francisco, in front of each other, from two completely different heights. The stakes are high and the agenda is broad: from election interference to fentanyl, from Russia to North Korea, from trade issues to war in the Middle East, which Biden intends to ask Xi to help with diplomatic efforts with Iran in an effort to push. To prevent the spread of conflict.

Are opinion polls falling in favor of Biden?

But between the two, it is the owner who is in the more complicated situation: stuck between the two Surveys This highlights the difficulties facing America, which appears to be in a dire state Economic recovery. Only 14% of Americans believe they are in a better financial situation since Biden took office, according to a poll he conducted Financial Times and the University of Michigan, where 70% of voters say Biden’s economic policies hurt or had no effect.

The survey underscores how the economy is at risk Biden’s re-election prospects, are already at risk of being blown up in their home. But the battle over the ballot boxes has only just begun abroad, between the president and his critics, especially among journalists. For days, Biden has been accusing the press of only highlighting negative opinion polls for him, while he is leading in many other key states. “The truth is, you don’t read the polls,” he told reporters. “10 polls, eight of which are leading in these key states, you only look at two, CNN and the New York Times, check, we’ll give you versions of the other polls.”. The president said he is convinced that he is not lagging behind in key states as opinion polls indicate.

Biden vs Democrats

In fact, the president is referring to last November 8 when the famous broadcaster celebrated the National Day Democratic victories in the statesWhich underscores how Biden always is Less popular than his partyWhich casts doubt on renomination, which was almost certain until a few weeks ago. The numbers, in fact, speak of continuity – Hemorrhage of votes among young people and minoritiesIt is the solid core that allowed half the miracle that happened a year ago in the midterm elections to occur. Scanning CNN/SSRS Show the former president Donald Trump ahead by 49 percentage points, compared to 45 points for the opponent.

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This is a bad challenge in itself performance A year for Biden, achieving a new victory for the former president that is less and less science fiction, bypassing the difficulties of the first term and his judicial disputes. In a world affected by new conflicts, from the Middle East to Ukraine, only a quarter of registered voters believe Biden has the resilience and intensity necessary to continue filling his current role effectively and efficiently.

Polls that followed those signed at the beginning of the month New York Times/Siena College Which gave Trump a huge advantage in most cases Countries in the balanceWhich sparked debate about whether Biden should run again. However, in the absence of a new generation of challengers within the Democrats, it remains extremely difficult to envision a recognizable and worthwhile alternative.

The president’s poll results are more at odds with the electoral trend recorded by the Democrats Ohio (The right to abortion is included in the Constitution), in Kentucky (Governor Andy Beshear won a second term) And in Virginia (Where they won the State Council). Positive signals for Democrats but enough to win the presidential election? Indeed, the fate of the White House next year can only be tinged blue if voters do not take the general election as a referendum on Biden: this would have been much easier in the United States. Mid-termBut it will be very difficult if the stakes become Pennsylvania Avenue.

Biden praises low inflation

The polls are down, but how are the calculations? Biden appears before Xi and the Chinese economy with some fairly good news. in October The inflation rate in the United States slowed Inflation remains at 3.2% annually, and Wall Street sees the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates – albeit remote – declining. Last month’s data on consumer prices represented a decline of 0.5 points compared to 3.7% in September, the first decline in the annual figure in the past three months. monthly basis, Prices remained stable Compared to +0.4% in the previous month. This value is lower than the estimates of economists who expected price growth of 3.3% per year and +0.1% per month.

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The inflation number is higher but it is also slowing down essenceThat is, stripped of more volatile components such as food and energy, at 4.0% per year and 0.2% per month. data essence Moreover, it is the most carefully monitored by the Federal Reserve and this slowdown in particular is pushing the Dow Jones to the positive (currently at 34,337 points). Biden praises the decline in inflation, which has fallen by 65%, and in the meantime he is dangling a jewel in his hat. “I work to achieve results for Americans and I will not give up. I fight every day to reduce costs for families“The president says, stressing that prices are falling while the labor market remains strong.”Instead of joining me, Republicans in Congress are fighting to cut taxes on the rich and big corporations“, he added.

The recovering US economy: a feather in Biden’s cap?

Macroeconomic data indicate that the US economy is accelerating despite rising interest rates and financing costs, but especially military and economic engagement in Ukraine and alongside Israel. At the beginning of 2023, Federal Reserve experts expected that the US economy would face serious difficulties due to rising interest rates, which in turn would lead to a gradual reduction in consumer spending and investment. Surprisingly, the exact opposite happened.

Only in September were they created 336 thousand new jobsThis is a sharp increase compared to July and August. New hires, which in turn increase new spending: In fact, retail sales and spending on services rose 0.7% in September. Until the American manufacturingWhich was experiencing difficulties before the summer, is showing signs of recovery. For this reason, industry experts who were predicting a recession have had to revise their forecasts, including growth estimates.

Therefore, there seems to be a change in scenario for the national economy, so much so that the Treasury Secretary announced it loudly Janet Yellen How is the American economy?Fundamentally strong“And treasury bonds”They remain the world’s main safe and liquid assetsIn Washington, the menacing shadows that loomed in the spring appear to be giving way this coming fall Soft landingIt is characterized by moderate economic growth and controlled inflation.

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The only flaw in this great little American miracle is… Climate changewhich would cost approx 150 billion dollars annually To the United States. This is the conclusion of the federal report prepared by him US National Climate Assessment, according to which climate change will particularly harm the poorest areas of the country. “Some of the economic impact of climate change is already being felt in the country, but the impact of future changes will be more significant throughout the U.S. economy, according to projections.“, we read in the report. The analysis concludes that the recent decline in emissions is not enough to allow the United States to reach its climate goals. One aspect, is the policy aspects greenOn which Biden has staked a large part of his credibility, which plays an essential role in the match with Beijing.

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