May 16, 2022

Hardwood Paroxysm

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Stock exchanges are dealing with the escalating war. China opens up to US accounting controls

The truth today for the markets after the Bush massacre and the exacerbation of the Russian-Ukrainian war – from China, the news about American accounting controls

Stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen are closed due to the Qingming (Clear Lighting Festival) holiday, but they are from China Which comes, unexpectedly, good news. Beijing authorities have Repealed the rule prohibiting Chinese companies listed on other lists to allow accounting inspections by non-Chinese regulators.

270 Chinese companies avoid expulsion

The issue of accounting controls was from the battlefields between the two superpowers: 270 Chinese companies listed on Wall Street were expelled from the US stock exchange by 2024. In short, it was a sadly rare sign of détente that led to the immediate rise of Hong Kong (+1.3%), with significantly higher signals for tech stocks.

As for the other eastern squares, they did not move much: Nikki Tokyo unchanged. Cosby Seoul + 0.3%. S&P ASX200 By Sidney + 0.4%. BSE Sensex From Mumbai + 1%.

Wall Street futures are down a bit, more room for price hikes

Wall Street futures are down a bit this morning. The 10-year Treasury note is trading at 2.41%, +3 basis points. The two years increased by 2.47%. March employment data provided more arguments for the Federal Reserve on Friday as it struggles to tackle increasingly rampant inflation. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said a series of steps would make rates more normal. Mary Daly thinks a 50 point rate hike is a possibility.

In the beginning Artemis 1: Man returns to the moon (to stay there)

Today, NASA will conduct one of the last tests in light of the launch of the Artemis 1 program, which expects to return to the Moon in preparation for a landing on Mars. The first all-private Axiom astronaut mission to the International Space Station will depart from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Axiom, Florida, on Wednesday.

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Better than football, Petrobras ($90 billion)

Light news in a tragic picture. Rodolfo Landim, the manager appointed by Jair Bolsonaro to take over Petrobras, the Brazilian oil giant (with a capital of $90 billion) resigned last night after his soccer team, Flamengo, lost 2-1 to Fluminense in the Rio State Championship final. . “I don’t have time for oil – he said – I have to reshape the club.”

Europe prepares for sanctions after Bucha

Even more tragic is the news coming from Europe, in particular From Jeep Butcha, a devastated suburb of Kyiv, as of today at the heart of possible sanctions by the European Union and NATO. In the realm of possibilities, there are new interventions regarding access to international payments to Russian banks, banning of ships from entering Western ports and obstruction of the supply of materials and technological equipment. But Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht of Berlin says it is time to start To seriously talk about energy penalties, including a methane moratorium that Lithuania has already agreed to. However, the action in Brussels will be delayed due to the outcome of the Hungarian elections, which was overshadowed by Viktor Orban.

The euro is unchanged and oil is down

L ‘euro It was unchanged at 1.104.

petroleum West Texas Intermediate crude drops slightly to $99 a barrel. Lithuania banned imports of Russian gas.

gold At 1.923, it is moving slightly.

future Wheat Rebound after the worst week in the last eleven years.

Stopping Russian gas is under discussion, the moment the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank arrive

The trend of German Trade Balance and US Durable Goods Orders are among the most important macro data in a single day, with no clues from China.

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But attention is focused on the possibility of new sanctions against Moscow that may break out of today’s Eurogroup meeting and the threat to cut off gas supplies, while the rally for many materials such as steel and aluminum continues (+46% for the commodity index over the past 12 months). The data on services for small and medium-sized businesses in Europe will also be released tomorrow.

Investors will be looking at the minutes of the Fed and European Central Bank meeting (scheduled for release next Wednesday and Thursday). The minutes in the US should confirm the next rally for May, likely by half a point in one go after markets priced the Fed’s tightening short-term and the backlash on long-term growth as the yield curve inverted.

On the other hand, the Frankfurt publication will allow us to understand the strength of the central bank hawks who insist on anticipating the timing of a rate hike, in line with the exponential growth of market yields. But it is very difficult to reconcile the fight against stagnation and tightening.

Tomorrow Dave, Franco warned

We will come out with a cautious forecast on GDP, because there is great uncertainty. Like last year, it is better to be mistaken for being pessimistic rather than overly optimistic.” The Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, thus predicted that the upcoming Def Building would be launched tomorrow.

Italian growth, according to Confindustria, will not exceed 1.9% while the government sees, at the moment, +2.8% (well below +4% before the Ukrainian invasion). Franco reiterated his desire to combine any new support measures (which he did not rule out for the energy sector) with a discipline of accounts: “Last year – as he indicated – we closed a deficit much lower than previous forecasts and this year the deficit should still be reduced.”

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