Majority to rule, open

Majority to rule, open

if Elections in Catalonia They were today, during the day, sun to Salvador Ella He will continue to lead the count with 41 seats and has settled at around 30% of the vote, with the majority to govern remaining open. togetherwith Carles Puigdemont, would finish second with 34 seats and a voting intention of 21.5%; I Republican leftwith Peter Aragoneswill retain 25 seats in the previous poll but will continue to decline in voting intention and will be at the minimum obtained during this observation: 16.6%.

The main change is that cupwith Laia Estradait will drop to 4 deputies and will suffer from having representation in Lleida and Tarragona, Vox will win one, and with 11 deputies, it will approach 12 seats. s Dr’Alejandro Fernandez. the common to Jessica Albayach They will be stuck with 5 representatives.

And now what?

This is the last poll that VilaWeb will publish during this election campaign, because from now on no more can be published. This makes it very difficult to adjust outcome expectations, which can still change during the remaining four days of the campaign and during the reflection day. As we have often done, we remember that each survey is not an announcement of what will happen when schools close, but rather a snapshot of the moment in which it was prepared. According to EM Analytics, the most likely trend seen so far will accelerate, rather than change, unless there are significant windfall gains. There are still more than 15% who have not yet decided who will be decisive at the last minute.

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PSC roof

Another pattern repeated in most opinion polls is that Salvador Illa appears positioned to lead the Socialist Congress Party to one of the best results in its history. So far, the highest number of seats was 50 Pascal Maragall In 1999, he then scored 42 in 2003, the year he was able to govern. Raymond Opioles It has always hovered around 40 seats, and also peaked at 42 seats in 1988. Now Ella looks close to 40, but still far from the ceiling of 50. In any case, in less than ten years, the Peace and Security Council will have recovered strongly from the downfall to which it seemed to have been precipitated during the most enthusiastic years of the process, when Mikel Isita He reached rock bottom with 14 deputies.

Despite the expected significant improvement in results, one of the unknowns is whether between now and Sunday Ella will be able to do anything that would take it further. Role Pedro Sanchez The early days of the campaign may have helped boost the PSC’s voting intention from the party’s 27.6 points. tracking At the beginning of the campaign to the 29.8% it is pointing to now, but there has not been a strong push and the momentum seems to have slowed in recent days.

The advantage of the Giants and the suffering of the cup

The EM Analytics poll for VilaWeb, as well as most opinion polls, show Puigdemont able to lift Aragonés significantly, reversing the rankings from three years ago, when Republicans bested Gaunt for the first time. If the predictions come true now, the uncertainty is what the spread will be. Since last Thursday, Puigdemont’s lead has not stopped widening, and now the distance between the two parties is 5% of the vote and 9 seats. On the other hand, the CUP will not get seats in Lleida and Tarragona, where it is constantly fighting for them, with a very small margin of votes.

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In the pro-Spanish sector, the People’s Party and Vox, with which they have been competing in recent days, are also equal. Sylvia Orioles In crucial stages such as jumping, so as not to lose momentum. On the other hand, he enteredCatalan Alliance It seems that Barcelona will have 3 seats, while remaining outside Parliament for the same amount Citizenswith Carlos Carrizosa,com At the same timeparty Clara Ponsati I Jordi Grubera.

There will be no mirror for Spanish women

Another possible conclusion. The polls published so far seem to confirm a fact that has already emerged in the Galician elections, in February, and in the Basque elections, in April: the results of the Spanish elections of July 23 will not be reproduced in the regional elections. They never did, but especially this time, because they were so influenced by the polarizing context that Pedro Sánchez depicted at the time. In July, the Socialists in the Basque Country won UPnP I Collecting, which later obtained, in the regional elections, two-thirds of the Council. In Galicia, they advanced PNG Both PP and PSOElike even summerwho subsequently did not obtain a single representative in the autonomous regions, was swept away by the good resultAnna Bunton.

In Catalonia, in the Spanish elections, the Political and Social Council won more than twice as many seats as Gantz’s party and the European Reform Party combined. Even Somare and the People’s Party overtook the pro-independence parties in votes. Now, according to Catalan election forecasts, this is far from being repeated. According to the average of all polls, the Socialists will not double the number of pro-independence parties, and the PP and Soumare will not exceed Gontz or the PRI in votes.

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Technical sheet

being: People who have the right to vote in Catalonia
Domain: Catalonia
Shares by ideological scale, age, gender, income, occupation, region, training and interest in politics, according to electoral census distribution.
Sample measurement: 1200 initial interviews + 100 daily interviews
Information collection procedures: Telephone interview, computer assisted (50%) CATI, mixed form, (50%) online interviews with structured intelligent questionnaire, CAWI.
Margin of error: 2.5% (N-1,200 for a confidence level of 90% (2 sigma) and in the assumption of P=Q=0.5 in the assumption of a simple random sample.
Contest duration: 4-5 minutes
Field work hours:
Previous: From April 15 to May 5, 2024.
Current: May 6, 2024
Supervisor name: 3
Access to the questionnaire and questions:
Responsible for analysis: Rodrigo Panero and Miguel Diaz
Institute: (Carrer Gran Via, 6, 28013, Madrid)

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