It seems that a poll conducted by Foreign Affairs magazine among some economists and experts with international qualifications tends towards a possible transgression in the future. But the reality in recent years is that Beijing has been growing too little and in a disorganized way. It’s not just about debt
Fifteen against thirteen. And a group of undecided people, faced with a question that couldn’t be more difficult: Will the Chinese economy one day be able to surpass the American economy? a question Established by authority magazine Foreign affairsTo a group of experts and economists, who have so far dealt with the dragon and its evils, but also with the United States, specifically in the days when San Francisco was the stage of the APEC Forum, Washington and Beijing. They try to cooperate againalso thanks to the canvas Janet Yellen.
Well, of the 34 people I interviewed, fifteen said they generally agreed with the fact that China, provided it restructures its economy, could one day overtake the United States, while thirteen thought differently that Beijing would never be able to Overcoming China. United States of America area. However, the remaining six economists are neutral. Among those who believe that China could try to gain supremacy, there are e.g Andrew J. nathan, Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, who believes that “China’s growth rate has slowed and is likely to continue to slow in the absence of radical reforms that shift large amounts of money from government control into the hands of consumers, which would also shift political power.” But The economy is so huge that, even with a slow growth rate, it will eventually surpass the US economy in terms of dollar-denominated GDP.
From a completely different opinion Hemin Ji, professor and assistant professor at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, who argues that “although China has experienced amazing growth since the 1980s, it faces many demographic and social challenges that could hinder economic progress. An aging population, an inadequate health care system, social challenges associated with urbanization, weak regulation and rule of law, and inequality in educational attainment are all major obstacles to China’s ambitions.
Certainly there are doubts about the possibility of China overtaking the United States Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University and senior fellow in China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. China’s deep structural imbalances have been recognized in recent years, but have not yet been addressed. Once Beijing decides, or is forced by rising debt, to address these imbalances, the only way to keep GDP growth rates high is through internal wealth transfers which are not impossible but would be highly controversial at the political level.
Regardless of opinions, the facts today indicate that China is experiencing a complete crisis, including a social crisis. The fact is that in dragons it is no longer consumed as it was before. If there is any fuel for the frenetic, sometimes astonishing, growth that Beijing has accustomed the world to over the past 30 years, it is consumption. The more Chinese buy, the more the economy booms. But now something is broken and it won’t be easy to put it back together again.
If people do not buy, prices fall and growth stops. And the latest data coming out of China says exactly that. In October, the general price index recorded a decline of 0.2% on an annual basis, which gave analysts the opportunity to speak publicly about “China’s return to deflation.” Needless to say, all of this is a precursor to a recession. But perhaps not all economists agree with this view.
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