October 3, 2022

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Conte’s phenomena, when the “C factor” replaces political science – skepticism

No political analyst is unwilling to argue, with a wealth of arguments and an abundance of examples, that politics has its own strict laws, to ignore or override which is always fatal. Nevertheless, the same scholars would not hesitate to admit, despite the implied paradox, that fortune in politics has all its weight and that the few politicians accepted by fate have additional tools that escape any law: in addition to their merits, they enjoy income from office due to circumstances as well To their potential talents, when they stumble they fall to their feet.

The most universally cited example is that of Romano Prodi, whose schoolmates usually remember touching his hair before interrogations to curry favor with fate. According to opinion polls, the M5S to which Giuseppe Conte belongs is the most growing political force in the election campaign and pledges to establish itself as the third Italian party after FdI and Pd. Despite a crushing media campaign that portrayed him for months as the corrupt traitor and traitor who caused the downfall of Migliore, and the instability that threatens the country and its inhabitants, an expected victory for the Right. If things really went this way for Conte, it would not be a simple victory but one and luck, for the thousandth time in the dazzling political career of a lawyer, at least a good part of the credit should be given.

M5S prices dropped just two months ago. The support of the Draghi government that did not take into account the demands of what was at the time the first party of the majority and an increasingly subservient and subservient alliance with the Democratic Party was quickly undermining the consensus by a giant rodent. However, Conte appeared to be constrained by electoral law and by the power of the media army. Trying to get off the track of being judged irrelevant actually meant having to face college testing alone and succumbing to the classic media carnage that happens in these cases on schedule. The Democratic Party was convinced that Conte would not dare, and in fact Conte wanted everything except to reach a non-refundable break, despite the difficult motives in this direction.

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In the accounts of the former prime minister, the decision to abstain was a mediation move, also because such options have always been interpreted in this way until now. After the blast, he would have been more than willing to mend an alliance, even if only electorally and in an anti-rightist job with Lita. It was his attempt to liberate himself, and to restore the part of the consensus whose bleed had just been ratified by the administration, but without reaching a complete break.

Today, with the polls before us, it is easy to say that for Conte and the movement, facing an election without mortgages of full and submissive support of the government and an alliance with the Democratic Party was the only chance of survival. At the time, things were less clear. The Democratic Party believed that the secession was, on the contrary, suicide, and for this very reason forced so much, and the 5S leader deeply feared that the Democratic Party was right. If today he was in a position to possibly allow him not only to save himself but also to exit the polls as a winner, it is because the Democratic Party’s circumstances and mistakes reluctantly put him in that position. A matter of luck, not a strategic calculation.

Moreover, it was already clear that the “People’s Advocate” was lucky. He found himself a first president against all expectations and predictions due to the game of circumstances. He remained at Palazzo Chigi, leading an alliance opposed to the former and against all logic, thanks to a game of political equilibrium that was independent of his person and action. It has gained immense popularity and has not yet dissipated thanks to the unpredictable epidemic.

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This does not mean that Conte is not playing his part. It has an enviable screen penetration ability and outperforms almost all competitors. He’s definitely cunning even if daring doesn’t often help him. But Giuseppe Conte sure owes a lot to the uncontrollable mystery factor that helped Romano Prodi so much.