May 20, 2022

Hardwood Paroxysm

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“Containing Russia…”. Another fuse lit: what could happen

On the one hand, the war in Ukraine consists of bombs, missiles and attacks. On the other hand, the direct distance between Russia and the West, understood as a bloc made up of the European Union and the United States. However, between these two extremes, we find a third front – if we can define it in this way – which can help fuel escalation. Well, fuse number three is about the possibility of inserting Finland at Boy.

Finland and NATO

Geographically, Finland shares with Russia 1340 km from the border. On a geopolitical level, at least for now, Helsinki does not appear to be a military ally. However, from last February 24 to today, or since the start of the Moscow military operation in Ukraine, the Scandinavian country began to think about its country. future. Also because the Kremlin issued two verbal warnings to Finland and Sweden, talking about “Serious military and political consequences that require our country to take reciprocal measuresFaced with the possibility of the two countries joining NATO.

To tell the truth, no one in and around Helsinki would have imagined going back 80 years ago. When, between 1939 and 1940, it was then Soviet Union Invading Finnish lands, at the end of hostilities gnawed at an abundance of 10% and caused the deaths of about 70 thousand people and 400 thousand deportees. Like was runningThe Ukrainian case raised the conscience of Finland and sheds light on an existential question that could be embodied in an unprecedented turning point in the security doctrine from the country itself.

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domino effect

Finland is part ofEuropean Union Since 1995 but it is not a member of NATO. He was neutral throughout the Cold War, and in those complex years he maintained good relations with both the West and Moscow. However, it seems that the present no longer gives the Finnish government the possibility to remain in such a position. The latest Russian insult to Helsinki is related to mistrust Trespassing In the sky of Finland. On the morning of April 8, a Russian government plane was suspected of violating Finnish airspace in the Gulf of Finland off Porvoo. According to the Finnish Ministry of Defense, the alleged violation of the Il-96-300 will last three minutes.

Before Easter, the Finnish parliament will present a White papers To assess the pros and cons of possible membership in NATO. The feeling, through opinion polls and statements by some politicians in the country, is that the executive branch headed by Sanna Marin may give it the green light even before the NATO summit scheduled for June in Madrid.

The basis of good-neighborly relations with Moscow fell overnightAnd, “explained Mika Altola, of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. In short, the times when NATO membership was seen as a loss of national identity are over.”Today there is a new concept: Finland should be part of collective containment from RussiaIt goes without saying that Helsinki’s potential rapprochement with NATO could create a kind of domino effect. Indeed, Sweden is also thinking about what to do. It remains only to understand Russia’s final reaction: indifference or fire and flame?

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