Busy week for they That this week has It broke the ceiling of $2000 per ounceThis is a fairly important psychological support, but it will quickly return below this limit in the following days. What happened to the market? Why did gold record this sudden rise?
On Wednesday, November 22, the price of gold futures on the Comex market in New York reached A High 2007 dollars The ounce then quickly falls below this limit and stabilizes at a level They range from $1,990 to $1,998. Today the gold contract is still trading at $1,995 per ounce (+0.17%).
And it’s all the Fed’s fault
Gold has traditionally performed Reflect that dollarOr this time also the rule did not include any exceptions. specific US currency fluctuations In fact, the decline in its value in international markets moved the precious metal, causing it to fly above this key threshold. This is the movement he also repeated Treasury yields fallThis makes the precious metal more suitable and attractive to international investors.
In fact, the market trend was justified Operators’ expectations, In light of the publication Federal Reserve Bank MinutesThat is, the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. In those days, in fact, the widely held view was that the US central bank had reached the end of the line on interest rates and was poised to reverse.
Expectations that were later dashed in the evening, when they were confirmed by the minutes of the FOMC meeting The Fed’s prudent approach And the possibility that interest rates could rise further in the near future, if risks emerge that inflation could flare up and stray from the 2% target.
Currently, market expectations indicate The interest rate level was essentially unchanged at the December meeting There is currently a low probability of 26% of reaching this target Reduce rate Already in March, although the hypothesis that the cut will not take place before that date is more realistic Second half of 2024.
And data on the real estate market
The following contributed to stimulating gold purchases Real estate market data, Released on Wednesday, which highlighted A.J A 4.1% decrease in existing home sales4.79 million units, below consensus (4.8 million). Numbers it It confirms the stage of weakness that the real estate market is going throughWhich was affected throughout 2023 by the aggressive policy pursued by the Federal Reserve, which makes gold more attractive in diversifying the investment portfolio.
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