January 25, 2022

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What will 2022 look like? Eight questions for the New Year, our predictions – Corriere.it

From Francesca Basso, Carlo Bordoni, Dario Di Fico, Massimo Gagini, Federico Fobini, Giuseppe Sarsina, Vincenzo Trioni, Franco Venturini

Is Putin’s Russia invade Ukraine? Will we see Trump return? Art is destined to go digital? Will our lifestyles change? Expert answers

Will Putin’s Russia really invade Ukraine?

There will be war in Ukraine? Mostly not. Why put it in It will cost a lot in terms of economic and financial penalties. Because Biden will remove the mask of the West’s guarantor, as the president has announced that he will not intervene militarily in the event of a Russian invasion. Neither of them can pull hard, and neither can lose face on the home front. That’s why it opens January 10th, After the phone calls between the White House and the Kremlin, Negotiations on the security of the continent of great importance to Europe remained on the sidelines despite consultations with the United States this time. Putin’s initial demands are unacceptable, and he knows that for sure
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Hundreds of thousands of men deployed on the Ukrainian border now want Encourage negotiation with Biden, they came to a solid but unannounced compromise: Russian soldiers would return to the barracks, and Ukraine would not join NATO. In short, take your time. But be careful, because if this agreement is not reached, Putin will have to do something militarily in Ukraine so as not to tarnish his reputation at home. For example, he opened the way to get to the Crimea by land. (Paolo Valentino)

Will we see the return of Trump and Trump’s sons?

Although banned from Facebook and Twitter, the angry view of Donald Trump has accompanied The first year of Biden’s presidency. In 2022, the Trumpists and their leaders will be back in the open. The goal: to undermine the majority of Democrats in the House and Senate in the midterm elections scheduled for November 1. Donald plans to defeat both the Trump Organization’s judiciary investigation and the House Committee’s investigation into itThe attack on Capitol Hill on January 6 last year. If so, Trump may announce his candidacy for president for 2024 shortly after the election. In any case, his dominance of the Republican Party and the conservative world in general is unquestionable. Right-wing media, led by Fox News, has long sidelined the most moderate voices. True: Conventional lenders are looking for unlikely alternatives. Meanwhile, the former president has already raised $1.2 billion from obscure institutional investors for Launching her social platform: Truth, La Verette.
(Giuseppe Sarsina)

Will inflation start to come back again in the US and Europe?

The success of central banks in Inflation forecast in 2021 Anyone should be advised not to pronounce in 2022. Christine LagardeThe European Central Bank chief said in January that the pace of price increases is likely to be around 1.3% annually in the coming months. The Fed Summit was talking about it Inflation is below the long-term target (2%). Instead, today the ratio is 6.8% in the US and 4.9% in the Eurozone, but it was not the shortsightedness of central bankers. The complexity of a system in which it is extremely difficult for even the most competent people to take into account the infinite number of health, commercial, political, demographic, or logistical variables that affect prices. But if we accept that we understand the economy a little better than how the ants understand their garden, it is possible to describe the landscape from our perspective: inflation returns almost (but not immediately) to its banks in Italy and Europe, while In the US, the Fed or the White House should tighten rates or subsidies to curb the price rush. Provided that the Washington authorities dare to challenge the authorities of Wall Street. and the electorate. (Federico Fobini)

Will work stop being the key to our identity?

IThe social phenomenon that was identified in America at the beginning of 2021 big resignation Mass resignations from hard or low-paying jobs – have become a Awesome reshuffle: Not letting go of work but redefining it and rethinking its weight in everyday life. A process, in different ways and with different levels of severity, destined to manifest itself in many countries, including Europe: from Germany and Great Britain lacking truck drivers to countries with a tourist profession, such as Italy struggling to find staff for restaurants and hotels. The impact of this rethinking — fueled by the impact of Covid, a discord in the lives of all of us — will be stronger in the United States for two reasons: First, because work (and its income) defines who Americans are. Than it is for Italians and Europeans in general. And then because in this period, take advantage of the sudden shortage of manpower (for early retirement childbearing And to block immigration) many in the US have been able to enjoy better working conditions (perhaps remotely) or have moved from very demanding and demanding jobs – from waiters to nurses – to better-paying, more rewarding ones. (Massimo Gaggi)

Even if pollution, will coal consumption increase?

Electricity production is experiencing a type of short circuit: The European Union aims to be climate neutral by 2050 It removes carbon All sectors of the economy that prefer electrification of services and production from renewable sources, while at the same time the increasing demand for energy is being met instantly by using fossil sources. China, which produces 60% of its energy with coal versus 11% in the European Union, decided last October to increase its production and domestic uses (but it no longer finances coal plants in Africa). When it comes to energy, the options are always long-term because the plant is not built overnight. But carbon dioxide damage, too. Not changing our habits now will have an impact in the not too distant future. However The surge in gas prices has raised doubts about the sustainability of the EU’s green options In a global scenario where China and India will still turn to coal. And EU countries that use nuclear power, which doesn’t produce carbon dioxide but has a radioactive waste problem, are sticking with it to the point that, barring fluctuations, it will end up in the union’s green rating. (Francesca Basso)

Do we all agree that the electric car is the future?

No, the prevailing feeling is that the controversy and controversy over the electric car will continue throughout 2022. Brussels has chosen, and the Italian government has agreed, to set a 2035 deadline by which no more cars will be sold in the internal combustion engine. Resistance, whether express or implied, by manufacturers is not destined to decrease. In fact, according to an extensive report by financial times In recent days it is getting more and more. Indeed, the speed of change is disputed and the goal is somehow to alter the date of 2035, in the meantime due to the controversy (and variance) focused on so-called technology neutrality. The right of the European Union to set goals for environmental transformation But it also cannot describe the individual technology (electrical technology) with which it can be achieved, argues the Italian Confederation of Industry. Which assumes other solutions such as hydrogen or synthetic biofuels. But developing these solutions – and refueling infrastructures – aligned with the halter date of 2035? It is difficult to answer if the variance in timing and selection techniques are intertwined and thus become inevitably complex. (Dario de Fico)

Will we see the end of the society we know?

Societies do not end only in miserable stories. as in last men From Margaret Atwood the scorpion shadow From King Stephen. But even in the most horrific stories, where humanity is reduced to a flash, there is always a need to rebuild the social fabric. Now, we’re not exactly dystopian, but there’s no denying that something is changing and that something has already. We don’t realize what’s changing, as it always happens to those who face long-term change. Even if in 1939 Norbert Elias It has already ushered in a society of individuals, and today we are already noticing the loosening of social and emotional bonds and solidarity. Even if we can never free ourselves from the desire for community, from that need to feel part of a whole. Then there are things that suddenly change. Of these we necessarily note. These are unexpected and overwhelming events, they force us to change our behaviour. But they are not the end of society. Perhaps we can talk about a post-society, then we can only imagine it through the cues we feel in everyday life. It should not be ignored, because there will certainly be no turning back. (Carlo Bordoni)

After NFT, is art going digital only?

Let’s get used to mixed model. At work, at school. As well as in art. You don’t have to be a prophet to imagine a near future where the connected and the non-connected will find themselves coexisting, coexisting, and reinforcing each other. digital. and corporal. First of all, we will come across artists who have the courage to commit to MediaSphere, creating panels with advanced tools and software, designed to trade on specific platforms, undermining many of the art market rituals: not replicable or exchangeable files, but high-tech panels, not much different from 3D-prints, collectible, purchasable with cryptocurrencies, Impossible to replicate thanks to Blockchain technology that validates, legitimizes and guarantees its authenticity and uniqueness. NFT phenomenon revealed. However, these paradigm shifts will not eliminate the need to continue to reinvent the oldest practice: painting. Because the graphic is somewhat similar to the narrative. It is an irrepressible instinct, which refers to a certain way of seeing and representing the world. Therefore, digital will not erase the physical, but rather nourish and nourish it. (Vincenzo Trioni)