“The US crisis is different from the European crisis”

“In the United States there is consumer price inflation, and in Europe there is production inflation. And they are very different things.”
Alberto Forcelli, 66, founder of Mindful Capital Partners, has been traveling across five continents for some time. Worked in public and private entities. He moves east to Boston, where he has lived for years, passing through the hills of Imola’s beloved, Buen Retiro.

He has a deep knowledge of markets, finance and global governments. Opinion In many conversations, he has the honor (and fun) of being one of the characters played by comedian Maurizio Croza.

Forcelli, unfortunately in recent months there hasn’t been much to laugh at. Massive rise in gas, sinking bags, and biting inflation.

“Real. Production costs in Europe are up 30 percent and will rise again in the coming months. Firms have not yet passed product cost prices.”

How is inflation different in the US?

“That one of the countries is inflated demand. A lot of money has been released. After $5 trillion in government aid in the last two years, there is an excess of liquidity. But it can easily be fought off with interest rates.”

And this in Europe?

“It’s oversupply. The cost of raw materials, energy, grain and more increases. And you don’t fight it with interest rates.”

How then is it counteracted without stifling recovery?

We have to live with it, while improving public demand. Using interest rate leverage is not appropriate. It is also true that the more the United States increases this increase, the weaker the euro will be and the better our exports will be.”

What good is a small saver overwhelmed by the stock market crash?

“Keep on cash, wait and promise again when you think the market has hit the low, the bottom line.”

Isn’t it worth buying now?

“The market may go down again. I will wait to see if a bullish indicator starts. I don’t know if we are really at the bottom.”

How is the US economy performing?

“It’s strong, it’s resisting. GDP could go up to 3.5, or even 4, by the end of the year. Excellent employment, low unemployment. They have grain, they have energy, and they’re expensive consumers but also big producers.”

China?

It is suffering from covid and the slowdown imposed by Xi Jinping on the big internet and real estate market. Now we have timid signs: Covid decline, slight recovery in industrial production but GDP at 4; The drop should have stopped instead at 5.5, which is already minuscule. They have to do fierce maneuvers, pumping cash at low rates, but they have large public and private debts. They’ve been fighting for years to stabilize it and an expansive maneuver can expand it.”

European economy?

“Not bad, further growth is expected in the year 22.”

Both Draghi and Gentiloni interpreted the Russian gas cut to Europe as a warning from Putin. Will we dry up?

“I can’t believe it. Putin will hurt himself. Suppose he keeps us on the razor blade.”

In return, the Russians say, they have increased the flow to China by 67%.

I can’t believe it, the gas they send to Europe is mined so far from China. There is no infrastructure to send it to. A person from Siberia arrives in Beijing. ”

Do you think that Draghi, Schulze and Macron went to Zelensky to give him weapons or rather to persuade him to look for a way out?

“I believe more in the second. They made him understand that ‘we are with you but we can’t do much more.’ I notice some tiredness around her.”

Are you referring to the United States?

This is not just for Europeans. So it is not as if all these weapons are available. Putin, on the other hand, makes them himself. ”

There are those who say that every American president is strongly conditioned by the military-industrial apparatus.
Yes, that may be true, but Putin is already consuming his army and will be careful not to make any more forays. However, foreign policy has never affected the election of the American president. The price of gasoline per gallon is more important.”

Do you agree with the Pope when he said that NATO “barked” at Putin’s door?

“Yes, more than ten years ago, the Poles, the Czechs and the Germans were letting the Ukrainians believe that they could join the European Union. They should have left Kyiv in peace.”

The fact is that Georgia and Moldova are also putting pressure on the European Union and that Sweden and Finland have asked to join NATO.

I don’t express myself about Georgia. For NATO, the entry of the two Scandinavian countries is certainly a major coup.”

Dying for Kyiv?

“Yes. This is a battle to be fought, the West needs this great test.”

Even at the cost of staying out in the cold?

Putin is the new Hitler.