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The United States, what they know (and don’t know) about Russia and Ukraine – Corriere.it

to Giuseppe Sarsina

At the end of Joe Biden’s brief tour of Poland, the point collected from intelligence and stray thoughts among his collaborators: From Putin’s possible plans to chemical weapons uncertainty

closed today Joe Biden’s European Tour. Weapons and money for refugees and a turning point in Western strategy in war. Let’s try to reconstruct the new scenario, gather official information and, above all, the rumors you’ve collected Courier service About the comparison between the United States and European countries. Here are the most important six steps.

Putin’s plans

For the first time since the start of the crisis, the Joe Biden administration is giving credit to messages from the Kremlin. Putin really can Focus on Donbass. However, the prerequisite was that the Ukrainian resistance continued to control three major cities: Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the east, and Nikolaev in the west. If this framework is preserved, in the coming days they are thinking of Washington, real negotiations can begin between Putin and Zelensky. However, neither in the United States nor in Europe believes that the Ukrainian government has any hope Take back control of Donbass. A negotiated withdrawal could allow Putin to exit the conflict by celebrating victory over the “neo-Nazi regime” in Kyiv. In fact, it would be a resounding defeat.

Zelensky’s weapons

The Ukrainian president continues to knock on all doors, asking for weapons and means to counterattack. Its push, and more sideways, is supported by Poland and the Baltic states by the United Kingdom. But the Americans noted that Zelensky already had enough weapons. Just two examples: compared to the Russian tank deployed on the ground, there are 11 anti-tank missiles in the hands of the Ukrainians. Biden’s advisers also rejected the issue of the 28 MiG-29 that the Poles wanted to hand over to Zelensky. It’s a wrong problem. The Kyiv Air Force already has 80 aircraft that patrol mainly in the western part of the country. This is another reason why the Russians cannot fully control the airspace. In any case, Biden confirmed that he would send other “lethal” weapons to Ukraine, including drones. Another key step: the Americans, perhaps along with the British and the French, are ready to send anti-naval missile batteries to the Ukrainians. Goal: protect Odessa. There has been a lot of discussion over the past few days about delivery channels. We understand that the flow of weapons and military vehicles has never stopped. The main road passes through Poland and the Russians have not yet been able to block it.

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duration of war

The delivery of new weapons and the Ukrainian resistance are changing the dynamics of the conflict. In informal talks in Brussels, the Americans openly admitted that they had incorrectly predicted the carrying capacity of the Ukrainian army. At this point the US government evaluates The “peak” of the war is now near. The de-escalation phase could soon begin, which should lead to negotiations.

Structural change of NATO

The United States fully supports the request of the Eastern European countries. NATO’s military center of gravity must shift towards the Russian borders. Last month, the Pentagon sent about 20,000 troops to Europe (10,000 in Poland alone), with another 80,000 in force already at mainly German bases. The unit is set to remain, regardless of the end of the war in Ukraine.

chemical and nuclear weapons

Fortunately, in the last hours the most catastrophic scenario seems to have lost ground. However The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Turkey have formed “mixed working groups” to control the “reaction.”“To a possible Putin attack with weapons of mass destruction. But the Americans believe that nuclear escalation is unlikely: Putin should not resort to tactical atomic bombs with a range of one kilometer. However, the alarm bell of chemical weapons still stands. For now, the Biden administration has let allies know they have no clues about potential preparations. It is the most worrying uncertainty.

Putin’s strength

How stable is the Russian president’s leadership? On this point, too, US intelligence does not have clear answers. The situation in Moscow is still described as very ambiguous. It is difficult to decipher potential signs of rebellion within the command block. The movements of generals and intelligence officers, including those with intermediate degrees, are carefully studied. Instead, the position of the oligarchy is considered almost irrelevant.

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Mar 26, 2022 (change on Mar 26, 2022 | 12:26)