August 11, 2022

Hardwood Paroxysm

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Stocks bypass US action and Abe attack and close positively. The dollar is one step away from parity with the euro

Data that exceeds US job expectations restores confidence in stock exchanges that pass Fed and European Central Bank decisions. Gold and oil are rising, the pound is down again

Thanks to the small final acceleration and the good performance of the automotive sector, almost all European listings closed the last session of the week: Piazza Afari is still among the best today It rises 1% to reach 21,774 basis points, ahead of Paris + 0.44%, Amsterdam + 0.42%, London + 0.1%. The most tense is Frankfurt + 1.34%, while Madrid is the only one to lose -0.28%.

Perhaps that would have given a better pace to the continental trade Wall Street recovery, Move to cautious progression after the negative start. However, volatility appears to be the hallmark of today’s session in New York, as indices move up and down not far from the water line, while government bonds see price falls and prices rise. In particular, the 10-year Treasury is moving above the 3% threshold.

Investors’ mood should deal with such disturbing news as Assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Tokyo canceled earnings after the event), while mass anti-Covid testing in Shanghai raised recession fears out of China.

On the other hand, the European Central Bank’s warning about the implications of climate change on bank accounts amounting to €70 billion on loans was irrelevant in Europe.

Today’s aggregate data is those on US jobs, which beat estimates.

US jobs can support a hawkish Fed

The Careers Created last month in the United States, excluding agriculture, 372 thousand, more than expected (250 thousand) and this reinforces the expectations of the hawkish Federal Reserve, which is not afraid of a recession and can move more freely on prices. Although the figures for the previous six months have been revised downward, “the non-farm payrolls do not change our expectations about the next moves by the Fed – says Filippo Djudovic, chief market strategist, IG Italia – we believe that at the next meeting of the power plants will decide Electricity in the US, bankers on the Federal Open Market Committee, raised interest rates by 75 basis points, to 1.50%-1.75% to the new range 2.25%-2.50%.” Thus it becomes increasingly likely that “an additional gap between the monetary policies of the central banks (the Fed and the European Central Bank) will make the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar below the level in the summer”.

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The Average hourly wages It also increased 10 cents, 0.31%, to $32.08; Compared to the previous year, it grew by 5.11%.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Rafael Bostik said he “fully supports a 75 basis point rate hike” at the upcoming meeting. “The economy is strong and it shows that raising another 75 points won’t do any long-term damage.” And again: “We are seeing an initial slowdown in the economy but we need a more significant slowdown.” So “we will try to bring down inflation while keeping the economy as strong as possible.”

Foreign exchange, pound shaken by political chaos

there single currency So it appears that it is expected to fall below the level against the dollar in a few months, even if it is currently trying a timid recovery and is trading around 1.017, not far from the lowest levels in the last 20 years.

The pound is shrinking a bitAfter a fire yesterday following the announcement of the resignation of Boris Johnson. According to Federico Vetrella, market strategist at IG Italia, the British outfit suffers from political chaos within the conservative party.

oil changer seat

The Oil is on the rise right now, in a volatile session and at the end of a difficult week, with sentiment torn between fears of plunging demand and supply problems. Both decades are heading for a weekly contraction. Prices slid, with North Sea oil dropping $10.73, the third biggest drop in contracts since trading began in 1988.

However, at the moment, Brent crude is recovering 1.3% and trading at $106 a barrel.

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Piazza Afari is appreciated with Saipem and Leonardo; Mps shoot

In the main Milan price list Saipem is still leading the danceUp 7.27%, ahead of the closing of Monday’s capital increase.

On the industrial front, among the encouraging news for Saipem is the news that was announced this morning regarding significant results in the ongoing offshore wind projects in Brittany and Taiwan.

Among the oil securities, it was also confirmed in cash Tenaris + 3.68%After final agreement to acquire 100% of Benteler Steel & Tube for $460 million. Analysts view the deal positively as it allows the group to strengthen its business in the US market. Eni’s performance is good + 1.63%.

Leonardo + 4.12%celebrates the promotion of French broker Oddo, which has upgraded the rating from Neutral to Outperform, and has set a target price of €12.50.

After the tough times during the week, the enginesthe cars: Stellants + 3.83%; Iveco + 3.4%.

The industry is advancing With Interpump + 2.86% and Prysmian + 2.3%, although Italian industrial production fell 1.1% in May (+ 3.4% over the year). And Stm is still a great +2.1%.

between Financial issues Banca Mediolanum stood out + 2.81% and Banca Generali + 2.32%. Positive, without highs or lows, the largest banks. However, from Ftse Mib, Mps fly, gaining 11.78%.

Communications neglected, +0.2%, in the wake of the capital market day.

The worst stock is Poste, at -1.56%penalized by downgrading UBS to “neutral” from “buy” with the target price lowered to 8.70 from €13.

At the bottom of the list are utilities, with Terna -1.5%, Italgas -0.46%, Enel -0.21%.

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The closing is also green for the bond: Spread Between the Italian and German ten years to 198 basis points (-2.21), with returns rising respectively to +3.28% and +1.29%.