January 27, 2022

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Stock exchanges today, December 3, 2021. US jobs are less than expected, but for analysts, the Fed will continue to tighten: the European Union closes in the red

Milan Nervous bags after giving it US data came in much less than expected in the labor market, with the creation of 210,000 jobs in November, which misses the expectations of analysts, who were targeting 550,000 new jobs. The public, automotive and retail sectors are in decline.

Slowing down the pace of US corporate hiring

In this way, some clouds are gathering around the recovery of the world’s most important economy, a consideration that takes more consistency in light of the development of recent days on the health front. So it looks like we can re-suggest the movie that was actually seen over the summer, when it was the delta variant that slowed the re-start of the occupation. “If Omicron has the same effects — note, Al Wsj, Justin Widner, economist at Deutsche Bank – that would slow the labor market recovery. “Currently, among the signs of continued normalization is the fact that the proportion of people looking for work is increasing. Also because wages (+4.8%) are in response to increases caused by accelerating inflation, although in this case also salary growth has been Less than expected (+5%).

Unemployment is dropping, but calculated on a different statistical basis, at 4.2%. This backtracking is highly explained Antonio Cesarano, chief global strategist at Intermonte – specifically due to “the increase in the number of potential workers who have emerged actively to look for work. Perhaps this is due to the lack of benefits and less concerns about the epidemic after the slowdown in infections, including October and November”. For Cesarano, “When putting the information in the two reports together, an overall context emerges in which companies began to slow down the hiring process when potential workers finally appeared more plentiful to actively look for work. In other words, the job offer became more noticeable even when the demand seemed On business by companies more cautious.” If you look at the comparison with pre-Covid, 3.9 million seats are still missing. In particular, Cesarano says, “Above all, there is a shortage of employment in the leisure and hospitality sector (+23,000), where there are still 1.3 million jobs lost to return to the pre-pandemic phase.”

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Markets and Central Banks Actions

The picture of light and shadow that emerged from the US jobs data is making financial markets nervous. At first, it seemed that creating expectations much lower than that was preventing the Fed from doing so Moving towards more ‘hardcore’ tones And thus towards accelerating the closure of the faucets that flooded the markets with liquidity. but remember Bloomberg, the only decrease in the number of unemployment allows the governor Jerome Powell To continue pressing for a diminishing Accelerated: Disappointed places created are not a game changer In the way of sticking to the stimuli. Filippo Djudovic, Senior Market Analyst at Ig Italia, commented, “The very disappointing job creation figure in November was offset by a sharp drop in unemployment and a high labor force participation rate – we believe today’s overall numbers have no bearing on options. We believe that, to combat inflationary pressures, the US central bank will lower inflation expectations, and fundamentally change its monetary policy approach. The next FOMC meeting may have a greater reduction in government bond purchases than market expectations.”

After the initial strengthening, markets raised concerns about the resilience of the recovery and the fact that the Fed will continue to tighten. at the end of the session Milan represents a decrease of 0.26%, Frankfurt 0.71%, London 0.14% H Paris 0.44%. After a good start Wall Street, even US indices are weakening: the technology sector is suffering in particular – when the EU stock exchanges are closed – the Nasdaq is down 2.2%, while the Dow Jones is 0.4% and the S&P500 is 0.96%. At Avary Recordate yard it stands out Maxi acquisition in the UK.

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On the European side, the ECB President said, Christine Lagarde, reiterated that the ECB is “ready to act” but “unlikely” to raise interest rates in 2022. Among the macro data, reassuring indicators come from the services sector. Markit’s index of small and medium-sized enterprises in our country rose to 55.9 points in November, from 52.4 the previous month, compared to the 54.5 that analysts had expected. The composite number rose to 57.6 points from 54.2 in October, beating analyst expectations who had expected a rise to 55.9. On the other hand, car production in Germany is bad: the market collapsed 31.7% again in November and is expected to close 2021 10 percentage points lower than 2020.

Asian markets moved positively this morning. over there TSE It extended at the end of trading and rose 1% with the Nikkei at 28,029.57, adding 276 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended the week in equal measure, down 0.093%. On the other hand, the Shanghai Composite Index was positive, rising 0.94% to 3607 points, and the Shenzhen component by 0.86% to 14,892 points. Island menu affected by choices Didi, China’s Uber competitorWhich in a few months is preparing to be delisted from Wall Street and will go public in Hong Kong. The company said in a statement that the board of directors authorized the start of delisting procedures from the New York Stock Exchange. The decision comes after Beijing put pressure on the giant, contrary to its inclusion on Wall Street from the start.

On the currency front, the price issue continues to worry Turkey, which has been struggling with one in recent days Significant devaluation of the currencyIn November, the country recorded inflation of 21.3% year-on-year, its highest level in three years. over there Turkish Central Bank The company said in a statement that it returned to liquidity in the currency market for the second time in 48 hours “due to the harmful price formation in the exchange rates.” In one week, the central bank’s net international foreign exchange reserves decreased by $510 million, from $25 billion to $24 billion and $670 million.

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Closes at 129 basis points Spread between BTP and German BundThe Italian 10-year bond yield was 0.93% in the secondary market.

Among the raw materials petroleum It moves higher the day after the OPEC+ meeting during which a 400,000 bpd production increase for January was confirmed as well. The contract for February delivery of Brent rose 2.57% to $71.46 a barrel, and the contract for January delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.38% to $68.08 a barrel.