“Put him in? The system is corrupt and doomed. Dictatorships end suddenly »- Corriere.it

Some say Vladimir Putin got stronger after Prigozhin’s uprising. maybe?

How can he be stronger, asks Boris Bondarev from the secret location in Europe where he has been living since he resigned from Russian diplomacy more than a year ago in an argument with the Kremlin?

If not for the bloodshed, he would have shown that a coup is impossible and would be more prepared next time.
You can never be prepared. Coups come unexpectedly. We in opposition must organize ourselves, develop strategies for how to move when this system is gone. These dictatorships end abruptly. We have to start imagining what we will do when Putin disappears in a year, two years, five years.

Will Putin now strengthen internal security?
The more he tries to prepare for the coup, the more likely he is to do so. Chief of Rosgvardia (National Guard, Mr. Dr) They said they would try to have tanks and other means. So for Putin to protect himself he should give more power to Rosvardia. What could prevent Rosgvardia from attacking the boss at that point?

Really Putin so weakened?
During the uprising, everyone saw that he was lost, and did not know what to do. His people should have acted automatically to protect him, but they were crippled. Wait for orders or try to wash their hands of them. Since there is no system or institution. It all depends on the informal relationships between people and people are afraid, even if they are responsible for hundreds of thousands of people. Nobody trained them to think independently and act independently.

But the dictator is always in the Kremlin.
Imagine a mafia boss. If he puts down a peaceful uprising, others in his circle will think he is weak. If Putin had drowned that revolution in blood, he would have shown from his point of view that he is strong, that he is not afraid of anything. Why would someone like Putin fear bloodshed? Whoever believes in this does not know Russia.

Prigozhin

Still a relevant player?

Putin spent a billion dollars on Wagner, which was not a private facility but Putin’s own military organization. I don’t think the militia will continue to be very important in the future. But if Wagner controlled important assets in Africa, who controls them now? To whom do mercenaries respond in Africa?

Has Putin lost his monopoly on the use of force?
He did this deliberately by creating the Wagner company. And not only. Since last year, there have been reports that many corporations and district governors have set up their own military organizations. Putin deliberately contradicted any basic principles of the state. He acted without thinking of the consequences. It’s all about trying to get ahead today, tomorrow, and another day. After the uprising he made all those public tours trying to convince himself that he was stronger than ever. It just shows that you are weak and insecure.

For Khodorkovsky, the democratic opposition must prepare to use force because Putin will not leave without it. Do you participate
Putin’s regime He is dying, rotten on the inside. For example, if Khodorkovsky could collect 20,000 armed men, discipline them, and leave for Moscow, I am not at all sure that they would meet any resistance. Everyone sees how fragile the whole structure is, people don’t want to fight for anyone. If there is a leader who displays strength, ability, and willingness to fight, few will oppose him. The question is what to do next.

What do you mean?
How to build democracy, while the whole society practically does not care. People in Russia do not care who leads them, and why: far from any idea of ​​\u200b\u200bmaking political choices. She thinks they don’t turn her on.

Is there no civil society in Russia?
There are occasional sparks of civilized society, but mostly indifferent people. On the one hand, this is good, because no one wants to go to war. But on the other hand, ordinary people cannot be counted on to support democracy, because they do not want to participate.

How long can Putin go on like this?

His only chance to become stronger is to defeat Ukraine, but I’m not sure that’s possible. So each of his next choices would be very harmful to him. marked. I don’t know how long it will last, it depends on how quickly the brains of the quarrels spin: if they understand that Putin is now the wrong person for them. Disagreements are like the rest of society, everyone only thinks of himself. So forming alliances is difficult. But if a few resourceful leaders try, Putin will fall. And then everyone will say: okay.