October 3, 2022

Hardwood Paroxysm

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Now Masulu speaks: “I will tell you what will happen. And where the Tsar will arrive …”

there Russia He knows that one of the Western “rules” toward Ukraine is not to engage Ukraine directly Boy in conflict. That is why the Kremlin, from time to time, raises threats or raises fears of a face-to-face confrontation between Washington and Moscow. He is convinced of that Giampiro Masuluthe former director of Italian intelligence (Dis) and former general secretary of Farnesina, who attempted to chart the future of the Ukrainian war.

NATO involvement and Moscow threats

NATO is currently providing support to Ukraine,”An attacking country demands to defend itself“.”None of the activities of NATO member states are configured as direct intervention. All of these activities are in accordance with international law and the Charter of the United NationsMasulo explained during an interview with the newspaper Prophet. According to Masulo, before focusing attention on any direct NATO involvement, it is worth making some considerations regarding Moscow.

Putin has a whole range of possibilities for conflict expansion without going to war with the West. It can create problems in other crisis scenarios such as the Sahel region, where Wagner mercenaries operate, or in Syria, the Caucasus and Balkan republics, Bosnia and Herzegovina, which raises the ambitions of the Serbian side.“But Moscow may also resort to biological or chemical weapons, while the nuclear option, so far, seems far and away,” Masulo declared.There is also the post-war period for Putin, and the resort to arms, albeit a theatrical, but nuclear weapon, could endanger him.“.

future of conflict

The future of conflict depends on various factors. Putin may have no interest in expanding the conflict ifRedefined the priorities of these watches“.”Moscow redefined Objectives Putin’s disregard for Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and the West’s hoarding, but also the effectiveness of the Western tactic of going to aid the offensive by arming it and punishing Russia in an almost unprecedented way, increases the cost of the ‘invasion’.,” Masulo asserted himself.

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In short, Russia appears to have redefined its goals. Moscow now refers to the southeast of Ukraine, al Donbassand possibly also to create two territorial continuities: one between the Crimea and the Donbass itself, and the other between the Crimea and Transnistria, achieved by the conquest of Odessa, excluding Kyiv from reaching for free.

But this is not all, because, according to Masulo, the Russian army can achieve other goals, including “Encirclement of Ukrainian forces concentrated since 2014 in the southeast against the separatists of Donbass, achieving disarmament, finally cutting supply lines and instilling fear“.”Specifically, the Russians have two goals: to invade Dnipro In the end Odessa”, explained Number One previously at Dis. The next few hours and days are sure to be crucial to understanding what the future of Ukraine will be.

In any case, “We are far from the idea of ​​direct confrontation with the West. Russia is already a nuclear power, it has the potential for blackmail, but it is aware of the economic and social situation approaching instability. The possibility of setting a minimum SOO goals as success is a bonus compared to an unsustainable global comparison,” Masulo asserted himself.