July 3, 2022

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Moscow is ready to negotiate. And Putin blew up General Dvornikov

He flies Do not approach the dialogue. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, in an interview with Al-Jazeera, envisaged an appeal NegotiationOur country has never excluded itself from international contacts. We are ready to talk and have a discussion on any topic but on the basis of respect.” These statements have been relaunched by the Russian news agency “Interfax”, and therefore they have a certain weight. Medvedev“Ukraine’s rejection of the agreement may mean the loss of its national sovereignty,” added the former president of the Russian Federation. As if to say: Kyiv is ceding part of the territory to avoid worse problems. But Zelensky repeated in a speech coinciding with 100 Days of War: “Victory will be ours.”

What is happening? Is the resumption of negotiations already approaching, which were interrupted, according to Medvedev, due to the lack of realism in Kyiv? Let’s go step by step. General Alexander yesterday Dvornikovknown as the unattractive nickname “Butcher of Syria”, and is called put it in To revive the tide of war in Ukraine, it was removed. In his place, the brigade was appointed commander of operations Gennady ZdekoDeputy Minister of Defense. The news was released by Kyev Indipendent who cites conflict intelligence team (Russia’s Opposition Independent Analysts Group). In short: the official nature is missing, but this hypothesis has been circulating for several days and has also been relaunched by the Western press, from the New York Times to the Daily Mail. If this is confirmed, it will undermine the hypothesis that the Russians, having failed to advance on Kyiv, are victorious in the Donbass.

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scenarios

Putin has already fired several generals since February 24, but Dvornikov’s dismissal will prove what British intelligence wrote: Russia Yes, he scores a tactical success in DonbassBut so far, compared to the initial plan, strategic results have not been obtained; Right, he now controls 90 percent of Lugansk (One of the two regions that make up the Donbass, the other is Donetsk), but “this costs a lot in terms of resources.” In the next two weeks he should take full control of Lugansk, and then focus on Donetsk (as the American research institute ISW notes), “but it is unlikely that he will have the strength to conquer it completely.” So far, the scenario of war remains elusive: Russia wins in the Donbass, but at a high price. Throughout the day the Kremlin spokesman, Peskov“We have already achieved some results and we will continue until we achieve all the goals,” he explained. Putting the pieces of the puzzle together, one could say: Once Lugansk and part of Donetsk are occupied, Russia will sit at the negotiating table to start from the status quo and negotiate. The duration of the war could be shorter than predicted for example by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who spoke instead of “wear and tear”. According to General Vincenzo Camporini, the former chief of staff of the Air Force and Defense, however, the conflict will continue for another two months at most because “the resources are not infinite”, “the Russians are pulling half-century-old tanks from mothballs”. Regarding a possible end associated with the Donbass region, many analysts call for caution: it may be Kyiv that does not accept the loss of important parts of the territory.

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Objectives

Francesca explains ManentiDirector of Cesvi (Center for International Studies): “The Russians in Donbas want two things: since the goal they had initially been not achieved, they must now present a result acceptable to public opinion, emphasizing the narrative according to which they did not intervene as aggressors, but as a force that worked on Protecting the rights of the pro-Russian population of Donbass; at the same time, they aim to create a kind of territorial continuity with Crimea in the east, an issue that was opened in 2014 and has never been closed for Russia. ”

There is a danger that Moscow intends to go further Odessa, To remove all seascapes from Ukraine? Francesca Manenti says: “We don’t know this – from the Russian point of view, it would be optimal because it would make Ukraine completely dependent on Moscow for its food security. It would reduce Ukraine’s international weight. But it remains to be seen that Russia has the strength to go beyond Odessa. Consolidating control over Lugansk and Donetsk would give Moscow a minimal result to present to public opinion to justify what they call a special military operation.” But would Ukraine agree to negotiate once Luhansk and perhaps part of Donetsk is lost? “Another unknown. Zelensky must explain To his public opinion the possibility of ceding part of the Ukrainian territory, should justify the acceptance of a kind of “distorted victory” ».

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