The past week has seen a series of military events and political moves that have made the situation on the ground and the possibility of a diplomatic development of the crisis less clear. No one can say for sure whether the Ukrainian resistance or the Russian invasion will prevail militarily and what will happen in the next few days. If the Ukrainians in the north had recaptured Kharkiv, the country’s second city partially destroyed by bombing, and pushed the invaders beyond the frontier, the Russians seemed one step closer to invading the Mariupol Steel Factory, the last bastion of resistance in the south. The border also began .. large-scale raids on Odessa, the Queen of the Black Sea.
On the political front, Mario Draghi’s visit to Washington appears to have achieved several simultaneous successes. The conversation with Biden has bridged positions between Europe more willing to talk for peace and the United States and the United Kingdom more determined to make Putin pay for his aggressive adventure. Draghi addressed German Chancellor Schulz’s concerns and Macron’s concerns in the face of the dangers of a spiral of threats and military escalation between the two opposing fronts. Surrounded by public respect for his person, Draghi concluded his talks by inviting Biden to speak with Putin. In turn, Macron, the newly elected president of France, appears to have managed to open a rift in China’s position. So far, after being deployed almost blindly in a “borderless alliance” with Russia, President Xi has said he shares the European commitment to bringing Russia and Ukraine to the peace table without humiliating anyone.
Many observers read Macron’s statement as an early confirmation to Putin that he does not need to fear losing face by accepting negotiation. And so “saving Putin’s face” immediately became an imperative, with so many references to the historical precedent – cited by Macron – of the mistake made by the victors of World War I who at Versailles imposed on a defeated Germany a peace treaty so humiliating that it became a harbinger of World War II. Aside from the misleading historical analogy, the real mistake of this well-meaning will for peace is to attribute to Putin our way of thinking, our caution and our will to find a balance that is capable, if not to please everyone, at least not to bother anyone too much.
Negotiating, negotiating and negotiating has always been the style and essence of the European Union: And “As long as you negotiate there is hope” could be his motto. This way of thinking and going was the way Europe followed these decades of peace. By finding compromise or always postponing decisions when there was no consensus, Europe built its own union and became an economic giant while remaining a political and military dwarf whose security, for nearly eighty years now, was guaranteed by the American superpower. . If there is no room for negotiation, then Europe, like it or not, can only get along with the United States, and so far Putin has not left the illusion that negotiations can only begin. I think that Putin, even if he failed in the blitzkrieg he had in mind when the conquest of Ukrainian lands began, is still convinced that he will win the war. He certainly hasn’t lost it yet. He does not seem to care how much time is needed, he knows that his people are accustomed to sacrifices, and they have no public opinion, let alone a democratic opposition to which they must respond in a free Parliament. It is possible that Putin will repeat his initial mistakes, continuing to underestimate the Ukrainian resistance and the power that a united West can deploy to support it.
It is also for this reason that the words of Conte and Salvini are incomprehensibleThe first would like Parliament to return to deliberation on what it has already decided to offer it a platform and perhaps an opportunity to trap. The second is convinced that he who listens to him is dumber than he is, and repeats that sending arms to Ukraine expands the war. Well, yes, virtually without American, European and even Italian weapons, the Russians would have devastated and occupied Ukraine, and Salvini could finally return to the T-shirt with Putin’s face.
“Prone to fits of apathy. Introvert. Award-winning internet evangelist. Extreme beer expert.”