Iran is increasing its presence on the Red Sea, condemning Israel, and this can create problems along those routes. The threat of a new hot summer also includes the US and Gulf countries (while Jcpoa has been discontinued)
“Today we can confirm that Iran is systematically establishing its bases in the Red Sea, with warships patrolling the southern region,” the Israeli defense minister said. Benny Gantzduring an event in Athens. “In recent months, we have identified the most significant Iranian military presence in the region over the past decade,” he explained. As for the Israeli defense, there are satellite images of at least four Iranian warships patrolling the Red Sea.
Officially, this interest in the Red Sea, which has lasted for a few years, has only a security function: Tehran says the presence of its ships serves to protect Iranian shipments from the dangers of pirate attacks — which actually fly into the southern region of the Red Sea, around the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Sea, as part of Anti-piracy operation “Atalanta” (EU Naval Force in Somalia).
However, the concern of Israel and some Arab countries is that interest in the Red Sea does not stop only with these kinds of reasons, but is also part of sabotage operations. The Pasdaran several times in recent years carried out sabotage and aggressive actions against other boats passing through the Strait of Hormuz, along the Persian Gulf.
The fear is that these activities may now expand in scope. However, given that if Hormuz is a central hub for the energy trade (oil and liquefied natural gas) leaving the Gulf, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea are more important for all the trade connecting Asia to Europe – A corridor connecting a quarter of the Mediterranean and a quarter of the Indian Ocean.
The situation could also be a multiplier for the tensions around the Islamic Republic, which come as it still struggles to find a box to reconfigure Jcpoa. For months, an agreement to freeze Iran’s nuclear program – in a state of limbo after the US exit and abuses by Tehran – has been underway. Interview now without solution.
The last of these attempts, last week, was mediated by Qatar has not achieved results even if, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hussein Amir AbdullahianThe road to diplomacy is open. Yesterday, Wednesday, July 6, Abdullahian hosted his Qatari counterpart in Tehran, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thaniwho in turn held telephone conversations with the heads of European and American diplomacy in recent days, Josep Borrell And the Anthony Blinken.
Today, Al-Thani is in Oman, which, along with Doha, is leading the regional push to find a solution to the file. For Qatar, above all else, an agreement between the United States and Iran will be beneficial so that there are no concerns about the development of the gas field it shares with Tehran.
However, the United States has ruled out that Doha will soon host another round of indirect talks (so called because EU officials are leading the discussions) with Iran, due to the lack of progress. We are committed to returning to compliance with the JCPOA if Iran adheres to the same commitment. Unfortunately, Iran, as I said earlier, continues to raise foreign issues [e] The State Department spokesperson commented, however, that it still appears to have not yet made such a political commitment.
In recent days, the US special envoy to Iran said, Robert MalleyHe said Tehran had enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb. Mali said NPR That the failure of the latest round of talks was a “missed opportunity,” he blamed Iran for making other requests unrelated to discussions about the nuclear program during the past few talks.
On the table is an Iranian request to exclude the Sepah movement from the US “terror” list. Washington says it is not part of the JCPOA dialogue. Tehran wants to include them in the context of lifting sanctions. Iranian president, Ibrahim RaisiHe declared that lifting “harsh” sanctions on his country is a prerequisite for reaching an agreement. Everything remained as it was in November 2021, when talks resumed three years after the stalemate began.
He comments, “One thing is certain: the ‘no deal, no crisis’ dynamic is not sustainable.” Ali winner An expert at Crisis Group, the Washington think tank where he runs the Iran Project Director. Fayez, who along with former colleague Robert Malley actively contributed to the drafting of the JCPOA, explains that “with so much friction between Iran and the United States and their regional allies, there is plenty of room for intentional or involuntary escalation to spiral out of control.”
The Red Sea, like the Strait of Hormuz or Syria and southern Lebanon, could be the blast points for this escalation. Everything seems to resemble the summer of 2019, when tensions flared in the form of tightening sanctions and attacks on international shipping routes and infrastructure for the Arab Gulf states, leading Tehran and Washington dangerously close to opening the conflict several times over the course of the war. few months.
Unlike three years ago, Iran has now consolidated its regional presence through the network of militias linked to the Pasdaran Party. An activity carried out despite the country being subjected to the so-called “maximum pressure” regime by the United States. Recently, along the Hormuz Line, three small Iranian boats of the “Bogmar” class came perilously within meters of contact with two US Navy warships.
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