IEA forecasts: Peak oil demand ‘looming’ before 2030

IEA forecasts: Peak oil demand ‘looming’ before 2030
demand for oil
picture David Thelin on unsplash

Mid-term Market Report “Oil 2023”

(Rinnovabili.it) – After three years of turmoil, from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, world oil markets They are gradually recalibrating. the Reference prices for crude oil They are back below pre-war levels and market tensions have eased somewhat. And although there are a number of uncertainties surrounding the sector, the IEA sees a clear trend of global demand for oil: Growth is expected to slow significantly over the forecast period 2022-28, and peak before 2030. Forecasts are featured in the new Mid-Term Market Report”2023 oilIt was published yesterday in Paris.

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What will happen to the demand for oil?

Based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will increase by 6% between 2022 and 2028, according to the forecast paper. 105.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) Under pressure from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. During the same period, global upstream investment will increase. The International Energy Agency estimates an 11% increase in 2023 to $528 billion, compared to $474 billion in 2022.

Then the pace will change: consumption growth should fall to just 0.4 mb/d, which indicates peak demand. Primarily thanks to the gradual decarbonization of the transportation sector, which, between electric propulsion, efficiency and biofuels, will reduce dependence on crude oil.

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IEA forecasts, changes ahead

“The transition to a clean energy economy is accelerating, with global oil demand peaking before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance.”said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. “Oil producers need to pay close attention to the increasing pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition.”

Special attention should be paid to refineries. These plants may need to shift their product revenues to intermediate distillates and petrochemical feedstocks to reflect evolving oil demand patterns. IEA projections estimate that demand for premium road transport fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, will be 1 million b/d lower than 2028 levels. Meanwhile, strong petrochemical activity and slower growth in liquid natural gas (NGL) supplies should The demand for liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha provided by refineries increases.

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