(ANSA) – ROME, Nov. 28 – If China did not have strict restrictive measures on circulation and travel, it would have as many as 630,000 new COVID-19 infections every day without more effective vaccines and specific treatments, accordingly. to a computational model developed by Peking University mathematicians for the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Ccdcp), which has been cited by some media outlets, such as Reuters and The Guardian.
According to what the media wrote, Chinese scientists have based on figures related to the spread of the Corona virus in August in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, France and Israel, assuming that the same countermeasures are adopted. by those countries in China. The worst case, more than 630 thousand cases per day, suggests the hypothesis that Beijing chooses the anti-Covid policy that is practiced in the United States. It will drop to 454,000 if you adopt the procedures in force in France and over 275,000 if the model is British.
“The estimates reveal a tangible possibility of a massive epidemic that would burden the health system unsustainably,” said the report, cited by the Guardian newspaper.
“From our findings – following up on the recommendations of Chinese scientists – comes a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to adopt ‘re-opening’ strategies, which are based solely on the premise that vaccines stimulate herd immunity, as is the case in some Western countries claiming it “. (Dealing).
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