Because something might not make Putin smile – Corriere.it

From our correspondent from Beijing
Xiplomacy is backXinhua announces that it welcomes the mission of the Chinese president to Central Asia, where he is now participating in the audience, for the first time in nearly three years.

Xi Jinping has resumed his role as a great traveler in Nur-Sultan, the capital of Kazakhstan. Masked Arrivalin compliance with anti-Covid measures that still force millions of Chinese to shutdown and restart after a few hours Samarkand in Uzbekistan, highlighting Vladimir Putin’s meeting39 of their personal friendship story.

The Russians say they are confident that China has decided to give enhanced support to the Ukrainian company.

Last February, Xi and Putin promised unlimited cooperation, pushed into each other’s arms by mutual suspicion and resentment toward the West.

But even if they sleep in the same bed, they don’t have the same dreams. This is evidenced by Xi’s first sentence to Nur-Sultan: No matter how much the international situation has changed, China will always adhere to Kazakhstan’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. A not-so-hidden warning about Putin’s ambitions: That means it Beijing will not tolerate Russia’s involvement in reviving its former hegemony in Eurasiaexplains Neva Yao, an Osce researcher in Asia.

Xi’s diplomatic work, the Xiplomacy promoted by Xinhua News Agency, can be summarized in four points:

1) Reviving the Silk Roads, mired in the epidemic and international debt problems that plagued many countries participating in the massive Chinese project. It’s no coincidence that Xi began traveling again with a layover in Kazakhstan, where in 2013 he first spoke of Yidai yilu (Belt of Road), the Mandarin name for a plan that promised to invest more than $1,300 billion. In 2000 infrastructure to be deployed in more than one hundred countries.

2. Xiplomacy now recalls Samarkand in Uzbekistan, where the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is held, another Chinese creature that brings together eight countries. It was founded in 2001 by China, Russia and four former Soviet republics (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). It was to be a forum for security dialogue focused on counter-terrorism and separatism. Beijing now says it has great economic potential, because math shows that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization brings together 41 percent of the world’s population and 24 percent of global GDP. Iran will also be welcomed in Samarkand; Another league of countries, from Turkey to Saudi Arabia, already has an observer role. Putin can also be content with the development of the organization so dear to Xi: he can help Russia escape the isolation imposed by the West.

3- Face to face between Putin and Xi Dominates these Asian maneuvers. Moscow announced last week that the 39th summit between the two leaders will be held in Samarkand. Beijing has not confirmed for days, to give a sign of superiority of the Party’s Secretary-General of StateWho accepts invitations when he sees fit. However, there is no doubt that the face-to-face meeting will take place tomorrow or later. And the Kremlin reinstated it this morning, promising to do so Discussion about the war in Ukraine, the situation in Taiwan and other regional and international issues. The goal is to show an alternative to the Western world, as the Russians point out.

Operations in Ukraine are going badly and Putin needs support: What are the limits of unlimited cooperation Xi promised last February. The Kaiser realized that Beijing does nothing for nothing: In Samarkand I will discuss a lot about gas. This summer, Beijing increased its demand for Russian gas by 60% and is estimated to buy 20% of Moscow’s oil production. Now it is planned to build a new gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, which will give an outlet to Russian production, now that the West has decided to free itself from dependence on Moscow. Russia also orders high-tech supplies made in China and the Chinese currency for payments, as access to the dollar has been significantly reduced due to Washington’s sanctions. Jokingly, but revealing the reality, Putin said it publicly Chinese friends are strong negotiators, and they look first and foremost to their own national interest. Beijing increased its trade with Russia, but In recent months, I have been careful not to run the risk of secondary penalties.

4. With the Red Army struggling against the Kyiv counter-attack, the Ukrainian file that Putin needs to share with Xi.

But China will continue to avoid any involvement in the Russian war, especially now that Putin’s forces on the ground have failed, explains Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin in Beijing. In analyzing the political world, neither sympathy nor diplomatic and political support for China would be really helpful, even if the jump in energy purchases since April had given little non-military support. In March, the world of politics is Weiwho is in Shanghai on the executive team of a government research center, He sent an analysis to the American Carter Center in which he predicted Putin’s defeat, politically if not militarily, and indicated that there are no eternal alliesPermanent enemies, only China’s national interests are eternal and permanent.

China’s interest in reshuffling the international system, resisting the attempt to encircle the United States. It also contrasts with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of the various Asian alliances that Joe Biden has woven. Russia serves this Chinese geopolitical strategy, says Yun Sun, who heads the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. He concludes by trying to read Xi’s opinion: If Russia can win in Ukraine, China will have a very powerful ally. If Russia loses, it will become a vassal, but always useful in the struggle against the West.

This article was first published in America China, the newsletter that Il Corriere dedicates to the two superpowers (and surroundings). is found over here. To receive it, you need to register in Il Punto, of which America China is one of the appointments: You can do it here