Accepting reality is a good antidote to avoiding disappointment. This is what financial markets are doing after the Federal Reserve decided, this week, and the European Central Bank, the previous bank, to maintain interest rates, and in their press conferences they took the opportunity to emphasize a message 'Higher prices for longer'. Futures markets are delaying the European Central Bank's cut that will occur a month later in the United States until April. Nerves calmed, moreover, They no longer expect this downward increase by more than 2 points What they were rubbing their hands with just a few weeks ago. Prices will fall, but step by step and not by a large amount.
Experts say central banks are worried Upward trend in wages And its impact on prices, as well Supply chain journey, with the conflict over the Red Sea and trade tensions between China and the United States as a backdrop. Therefore, they will wait quietly until inflation is under control before moving. As January data ended, prices in Spain rose by three-tenths, while they fell very slightly in Europe as a whole.
Prices will fall, but step by step and not by a large amount. Central banks are concerned about rising wages and conflict in the Red Sea
For this reason, funds are focusing on year-end 2023 earnings releases and expectations for this fiscal year. Technology was key on Wall Street, and money chose to stick with the best. Alphabet (Google) and Apple, though, were disappointed with their accounts. He was the weekly star Target with 20% upside In this round in Spain, the good results of banks moving with maximum historical profits gave wings to the Ibex 35 index which achieved the most important revaluation of the year by 1.27%. BBVA leads the weekly increase for Spanish selectivity with 10.75%, while Santander and Unicaja are also in the top ten. This represents a difference compared to European markets, which ended the week with slight losses.
The mood in the stock world has begun to become more positive as concerns about money prices subside and earnings expectations improve, especially for technology companies. The S&P 500 finished the week at record levels and the market consensus expects a 10% increase by the end of the year That would easily maintain these levels. For its part, bonds and oil move with daily fluctuations of ups and downs and end without significant movements. Crude oil continues to withstand geopolitical tensions, largely in anticipation of a revitalization of the Chinese economy and boosting demand.
Data week in Germany, in a context where the main European economy is weak
According to Cingular Bank, the week will begin in Europe with the publication of December data Trade balance in Germany, in a context where the main European economy is vulnerable due to the global logistics crisis and the slowdown in domestic demand. Data on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone services sector will continue. The UK PMI will also be published, which, unlike the Eurozone, was in expansionary territory last month. The development of factory orders in Germany and retail sales in the euro zone will be published on Tuesday. The next day we will meet them Industrial production data in Germany, which as expected will continue to show deterioration in the sector. In addition, data on industrial production in Spain and retail sales in Italy will be published. Finally, the week will conclude with a post CPI in Germany and industrial production in Italy.
In business, publishing results Logista, Unicaja, UPS, NH Hotels, Amundi, Carlsberg, Siemens, AstraZeneca, Credit Agricole, Société Générale, ArcelorMittal and L'Oréal, among others. Along with payment Earnings from ACS and Group Catalana Occident.
For its part in the United States, investor attention next week will focus on the services PMI and the US ISM non-manufacturing index, which will reflect the development of the sector, which again last month showed greater resilience than expected. Unemployment claims and wholesale inventories data will be published on Thursday. The results will also be presented McDonald's, Ford, Uber, Fox, PayPal, Walt Disney, Philip Morris, and PepsiCoothers.
It will be necessary to pay attention to Letters Many US central bankers, starting with Jerome Powell On Sunday night and in Spain, in addition, 6- and 12-month letter auctions will be held at the weekend.
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