What is the bet in the Euskadi elections?

The stars can always align, but the winner of the Euskadi election on April 21 will almost certainly be a sovereign party: PNB o Collect. The race is so close, because different polls don't agree on who will come out ahead of the other. Regarding barometers, there is no consensus except in two aspects: Whoever comes second will follow in the wake of the firstThe Socialist People's Party will be the third force in those elections. This means that the Basque branch of the party Pedro Sanchez This may be necessary when it is necessary to choose who will have power in Euskadi for the next four years. It turns out that the two likely winners of the elections remain the leader of the Socialist Workers Party in Moncloa.

A quick five cents on understanding the future coalition game once the ballots are counted: In the Basque Country, it is not necessary to obtain an absolute majority To be invested lehendakari. It works practically in the same way as a mayor is elected at city hall, so the candidate who receives the most votes in the plenum becomes president of the Basque Country. The second aspect to take into consideration is that, averaging the various opinion polls published so far, it is estimated that the PNP and Bildo could tie on about 28 seats, while the PSE will get 11 seats; PP, 7; In addition, 1. It is a council composed of 75 representatives, with an absolute majority of 38 seats.

A Bildou presidency is practically impossible

PSE filter, Eneko AnduezaThey have already made it clear from the beginning of the campaign that in no way will they agree with Bildou. PNB has spoken in the same way. So, given that premise, embrace it Belo Otexandiano He could only aspire to invest lehendakari with the support of Podemos/Somar, which is expected to lead to a disastrous result, and it is doubtful that they will be able to gain representation in the Basque Parliament.

But, in any case, PNB, PSE and PP have experience a Basque country Agreeing to prevent Beldo from coming to power. Nothing indicates that popular support will ultimately be decisive. Because the sum of PNB and PSE will be much higher than the power that abertzales can achieve. Without socialists? if Government officials They have finally managed to get a good result and put themselves loosely ahead of Bildu, and it may happen that PSE is not decisive, and that the formation of Imanol Pradales does not need to look for any external support. This means that a scenario may arise in which the stock market does not have to get wet, and it would be good for it to be out of executive power, in order to restore the progressive standard, which is now in Bildo's hands.

It is therefore still unknown what role the Basque Socialists may play after the elections. This does not mean that the recurrence of PNB + PSE marriage is taken for granted. Although they are ideologically very distant parties, It is an alliance of convenience because it guarantees stability in both Vitoria and Madrid. if Government officials, much closer to the PP in terms of left-right axis, it would not be difficult for them to leave Pedro Sánchez as entrenched in the Chamber of Deputies as Beldo, a formation that was not at all sufficient to guarantee their support for the PP. PSOE Post Election 23-J. Sanchez is more interested in marrying Andoni Ortuzar than Arnaldo Otegui.

Possible course change in the Basque Country

Therefore, all violations are indicated Government officials They will keep the presidency in their hands. However, Bildoo could win the election. Insofar as the future tenant of Ajuria Enea continues to have a PNB card, there may be a change in the political cycle in the Basque Country: Abertzale left to become the number one force Policy.

In the last general elections, both formations were practically tied in the elections Basque country (24% of the vote for PNB and 23.9% for Bildou; although the latter ultimately received more votes and more seats in total because they also ran in Navarre). Two months ago, in the May 28 municipal elections, the PNP overtook Bildou in votes (323,124 versus 297,154), but Abertazal won more councilors than the historically dominant party in Euskadi (1,052 versus 983).

New faces

One of the peculiarities of these elections is the number of new faces that appear in the various nominations. PNB, Bildu, PSE and PP have new candidates in this election. Only Podemos and Fox repeat. Andoni Ortuzar's decisions to relieve Iñigo Orcolo as Giltsalis' presidential candidate were news. And Arnaldo Otegi is not at the top of Bildó's list. Both formations have ceded leadership of the nominations to Imanol Pradales I Belo Otexandiano, respectively. The famous Carlos Iturguíz was replaced by Javier de Andres; Socialist Edoya Mendia was relieved Eneko Andueza.