Ukraine, historian Fukuyama: “It is the decisive challenge between democracies and regimes: Putin will pay a heavy price” – Corriere.it

TheThe world is no longer divided between left and right, but between democracies and authoritarian regimes. China and Russia are the engines of the second front. Putin has been at the center of this undemocratic network for years and sends troops everywhere, from Syria to Venezuela. Now try to crush Ukraine. I am convinced, and I have been saying this since 2014, that the decisive battle is taking place here between Free countries and authoritarian regimes. The outcome is far more important than the fate of Ukraine itself because it will give a boost to democracies or totalitarian regimes, depending on who reigns.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet regime, Historian Francis Fukuyama Astonished and deceived the West itself end of history
: An article describing liberal democracy as the end of humanity’s ideological development. Thirty years later – and after several course corrections – Fukuyama remains convinced of the absolute value of liberal democratic idealsbut he also acknowledges that To defend them, you have to climb on the barricades. He is interviewed while returning briefly to Stanford, California, after a stint in the Balkans, as he is leaving for London where he is presenting his new book. Liberalism and its discontent.

In your most recent intervention, you defined Putin’s attack as a great tragedy, a potentially mortal threat, but also a great opportunity for liberal democracies to revive, which are awakening from their slumber, rediscovering compactness and a deep sense of shared identity.

Putin made a grave error in assessment. He was planning to take Ukraine in two days instead, the fierce resistance of that people shows the world, especially the youth, so little interest in the ideals of freedom and democracy that they take for granted, the importance of these values ​​and, above all, the importance of defending them from tyrants willing at anything to stifle them. Awakening the West will cost him dearly, but Putin can still achieve a victory, albeit partial: if he can overthrow him. Zelensky’s democratic governmentwill show that significant political results can be achieved with military force: a forerunner of other regimes that tend to follow the same path.

How much can one rely on NATO interdependence, from Hungary in Orpen to Turkey saying no to sanctions?

NATO has rediscovered an unusual unit that no one expected. A valuable asset. Definitely can’t be trusted Orbn, always willing to play the most unscrupulous games and there are other problems, for example with Poland which was about to be punished by the European Union. Now that Warsaw is the advanced frontier of the Alliance and welcomes millions of refugees, this file will be shelved. Problems, however, remain. But the general ethos of European governments is different today. Above all, the very drastic and rapid change in Germany has great weight: the 40-year coup Policy, doubling military spending, arms donated to Ukraine. This war could create the conditions for the re-establishment of NATO and Europe on a new foundation. Things that were unimaginable until yesterday became possible. If Macron is re-elected, France and Germany will indeed be able to promote the so-called Independent European Defense Initiative.

To be credible, shouldn’t European defense have a nuclear deterrent? Germany with the atomic bomb?

The nuclear deterrent is important, but two countries already have it in Europe and it’s enough. Then there will always be the US NATO umbrella. I do not think that Germany wants to become a nuclear power. What matters is equipping himself with enough conventional military force to defend himself independently and for missions like those in the Balkans.

Aren’t you afraid that efforts to isolate Putin, even militarily and economically, could be thwarted by China?

After Putin lightly promised unlimited alliances, China has other ideas. I see no concrete evidence of a genuinely positive response to Russia’s request for military assistance. They will be careful: Sanctions against Russia They will also limit their targets in Taiwan and the failure of Russian forces will make them think too. China has invested heavily in the military, and has the latest technology, but this does not mean that its armed forces have sufficient operational capabilities.

Not even afraid of it Russia and China Could an anti-Western front of emerging nations opposed to sanctions that cost everyone coagulate, perhaps only on economic ground?

There is resentment of the West in many parts of the world, but this mainly depends on mistakes such as the invasion of Iraq or even just diplomatic friction. I come from North Macedonia: strong resentment towards Europe does not depend on the rejection of liberal democratic values, but on the fact that Skopje applied to join the European Union 17 years ago and since then closed the door in its face several times. I have little faith in the birth of a trading bloc independent of the US and Europe: the payment system still consists almost exclusively of dollars and euros. It is not easy for China to replace a global financial network like Swift. He can do it, but not in the short term.

Doesn’t NATO blame mistakes?

The offer of Georgia and Ukraine to join the alliance in 2008 was a fatal mistake, but they are not among them, as political scientist John Mearsheimer, who attributes Russian aggression toNATO expansion. The origin can be found in the powerful historical narrative published by Putin and in his will to undo the European order that took shape after the Cold War. Not only in Ukraine but throughout Eastern Europe.

Fears of escalation of the use of the atomic bomb?

I don’t think the nuclear threat is very credible. Everyone, including Putin, understands that the atomic bomb is not a useful weapon for achieving political goals. I fear the use of chemical weapons as a desperate response to a Kremlin locked in a corner.

Turkey has become a regional power thanks to the use of its drones in various conflicts. He is now arming Ukraine, but he is negotiating with Putin and not punishing him. What game is he playing?

Turkey thinks so A special relationship with Moscow. Special Report but not so good, since Turkey shot down a Russian plane in Syria. Erdogan is upset that Putin consulted him and then did not follow his advice to attack. I don’t think he would mind seeing Moscow in trouble. Also thanks to the killer Turkish planes used by the Ukrainians that now everyone wants to buy.