Transition 4.0 does not go into the attic: an immediate rate increase is considered and then a structural review of the plan

There is no mention in the budget bill of the Transition 4.0 plan, which will enter a new phase from January rates more than half Compared to 2022, the registration of not renewing the training tax credit 4.0 has caused great controversy and prompted the head of industrialists Carlo Bonomi to express his position. “Disappointment” in the corporate world.

To this we must add that given the focus of the maneuver on managing inflation and energy emergencies and on launching reforms resulting from electoral promises, there should be no room for interferences in Transition 4.0, not even in the necessarily swift passage of the maneuver in parliament.

However, over the past few days several indicators have emerged that allow us to look to the near future with some optimism. Some of them are political signals, such as the November 29 meeting between Carlo Calenda, leader of the movement and former Minister of Economic Development, also the “political father” of the Industry 4.0 plan, and the current government led by Giorgia Meloni. Transition 4.0 was one of the topics at the center of this meeting.

Another signal was also given on November 29 by Italy’s Minister for Enterprise and Craft (Mimit, ex Mise) Urso in message Sent to Anitec-Assinform: a letter in which the Minister emphasized the need for a deep revision of the plan to implement the needs imposed by the changing economic context, with greater focus on the “non-material aspects”. Review work to begin in January which will be subject to a ‘holistic working and listening approach’.

Towards an immediate interest rate hike

What happens behind the scenes? In progress conversation by the government with the European Union to return part of the PNRR resources allocated for the period ending in 2022 but not yet spent, as the minister himself admitted in an interview with Corriere della Sera on December 3, where he explained that the plan needed to be refinanced and that in this regard “we have begun discussions with the Commission to use the PNR resources even after the deadline of December 31”.

what does that mean? Remaining from Transition 4.0, the resources allocated to the plan – 13.38 billion from RFF plus 5.08 from the Supplementary Fund – were used to finance the cap rates that were in effect in 2021-2022 and, by the end of this year, end their impact (excluding deliveries of goods ordered a year ago 2022 which is possible until June 2023). Once this phase ends, in January 2023, the plan should enter a new phase funded exclusively from state budget resources, which is why rates are subject to Such a great cut.

The purpose of the dialogue conducted by Rafael Veto, Minister for European Affairs and Cohesion Policies and PNRR, is to obtain from the Commission the possibility Postponed until 2023 The part of those resources (we are talking about just under 4 billion euros) that will not be utilized in the biennium 2021-2022 due to the pandemic and the macroeconomic scenario.

These are talks that have begun and are moving forward with conviction on the part of the government, but their results are not clear: in fact, European rules require that resources be spent on achieving goals. But this is precisely what Italy intends to take advantage of: the target must, in fact, be achieved in terms of business (about 120,000 firms); Furthermore, the extension of the time period for resource usage will extend to 2023, thus staying within the time period covered by the Domain Name Registry (PNRR).

If the dialogue is successful, the outcome of these negotiations – at least this is the intention of the government – can lead to Re-rates for 2022 Also for the 2023 tax credit’s refinance Training 4.0. All this in the context of a ruling that is outside the budget law, which must be reached The first months of 2023.

With regard to Training 4.0, the government should – subject to the availability of resources – proceed in the wake of the decree that price increase Provided you make your purchases from qualified suppliers (actually they never went into effect), finally keep track of them through 2023.

There is – however it is worth emphasizing again – the possibility that it could be The European Union says no, emphasizing how PNRR rules are clear from the outset that resources allocated but not exploited cannot be recovered. In this case, Italy will hardly find other resources to finance a rate hike.

Plan revision starting in 2024

In parallel, the government will also move to one review Structural plan, which will nevertheless become a factor of 2024. Urso refers to this when he says that the plan today “does not deviate much from the approach of 2017, as after more than 6 years it needs a deep review to include the needs imposed by the changing economic context.”

The hypotheses under study vary, and they are all intended to make money structural This incentive package. They range from those who, like Kalinda himself, propose a return to hyperconsumption, to those who would rather revise the lists of product categories included in Annexes A and B, all the way to those who would instead like to broaden the scope of the transition plan. 4.0 to include incentives to support the green transition. There is also the idea of ​​linking higher rates to achieving certain recruitment goals.

This will be discussed in various meetings that will see business associations and other parties participating as champions, giving credibility to the minister’s intentions to adopt a “common path”.

However – we feel – the forecast will have to take into account that if the possible increase in rates for 2023 we can hope for the crutch of PNRR, then from 2024 we will definitely have to deal with our pockets and with us. Thousands more emergencies that, year after year, capture the attention of politics.