December 3, 2021

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The yellow zone, Marche and Friuli are in the balance. Christmas in danger of closure? What will happen, questions and answers

In the past few weeks corona virus disease pandemic She re-bited and increased infections. Should we be worried? Is the risk of closures about to return? What will happen between now and Christmas? Below is the most reliable scenario based on the latest information.

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1) Will resuming the infection lead to a new shutdown?

For Italy, the risk of a new lockdown is almost non-existent. Local lockdowns will be possible in the coming weeks, up to countries’ red zones and perhaps some cities, but with the goal of choking some outbreaks in the bud. However, the general lockdown is off the radar for a very simple reason: The high vaccination rate prevents new infections from turning into serious diseases. If hospitals and resuscitation operations are not full, there is no need to close. The only real danger is the possibility of a virus emerging capable of circumventing the protection of the vaccine.

2) What is the level of the epidemic in Italy compared to the level of other countries?

As of yesterday, the weekly rate of Italian infections per 100,000 inhabitants was still at 74. Let’s see elsewhere: Austria: 654; Slovenia: 1 076; Germany: 248; Switzerland: 208; France: 95; Spain: 32; Great Britain: 342.

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3) Is it true that infections in Italy will increase until Christmas?

Very likely but – while continuing to be very careful – we won’t have Christmas in the red or orange like last year.

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4) Why should Christmas be safe from potential closures?

The trend of epidemics is volatile. One of the things we now know about the Covid-19 virus is that it has expansion phases that last 6-8 weeks followed by regression phases that last about 4-6 weeks. A few weeks ago across Europe, there was a violent recovery phase in some countries with very few vaccinated people, and fortunately in Italy – the most vaccinated country in Europe along with Spain and Portugal – it is relatively modest.

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5) Why do Friuli and Marsh take more risks?

At the moment, the most difficult situations are those of Friuli and Marc where intensive therapy beds occupy about 10%. In Trieste, in particular, there is a very strong outbreak and yesterday the infections were at 503 per 100,000 inhabitants. Even Bolzano, with 285 infections per 100,000 people, has a problem. For a term for comparison, the province of Rome is located at an altitude of 84. In any case, Friuli and Marche at worst risk passing into the yellow zone which in practice means that it will be necessary to wear a mask even in the open air and that it will not be possible to eat at a table The restaurant is for more than 4 people. If you think that Austria prevents unvaccinated people from going to restaurants even outdoors, we have an idea of ​​how severe the epidemic is.

6) What is the level of injuries at Christmas?

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According to statisticians, it is reasonable to assume the level of new cases per day between 15 and 20,000 in the second half of December. In recent days, new daily cases recorded in Italy have fluctuated internally at 7,000 (on average). The growth rate of the infection suggests that it may double around mid-December.

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7) With 15,000 infections a day, are hospitals resisting?

Yes, it is always difficult to make predictions. But in Great Britain – where third doses have largely exceeded the quota of 10 million versus 2.5 million in Italy – of the 100 infections, there is an average of 1% of hospitalizations and 0.4% of deaths. In Italy, the average data for severe cases is likely to be higher because we have a larger population than the English. But even assuming a doubling of the average serious case compared to the UK (and thus 2% hospitalizations and 0.8% case fatalities), 20,000 daily infections would translate into 400 daily hospitalizations and 160 deaths. Heavy data but certainly far from the peak of around 1,000 deaths per day that caused the shutdowns.

8) Is it true that children are now the main carriers of the virus?

Unfortunately. All the latest studies, German from yesterday, indicate that at this time – thanks to mass vaccinations – the virus is spreading especially among young people and among children who, fortunately, do not cause them any harm except in very rare cases. It must be said that the situation will change from mid-December when – most likely – it will also be possible to vaccinate children over 5 years old. But in the meantime, those bringing children should be very careful especially if they are getting older, even if they have been vaccinated.

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9) The best way to protect yourself?

No need to get around it: A vaccine is the best weapon. It was the vaccine that made the difference last year. On December 10, 2020, 32,000 cases and 384 deaths were recorded in Italy, yesterday 7,900 cases and 60 deaths. For this reason, the third dose should be taken absolutely six months after the second. In addition, the mask should always be used indoors, perhaps Ffp2 which – especially if you use public transport – better protects and gatherings of any kind are completely avoided.

10) Why doesn’t the guard come down?

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 has not decreased. Yesterday in Israel – the country that has managed the epidemic best in the world – an exercise was conducted in all hospitals to deal with the possibility of the arrival of an alternative insensitive to the effects of the vaccine. The current variant of Covid-19, Delta, is capable of infecting 7 times more than the original virus and “breakthrough” vaccine protection for about 20% of vaccinators. In short, the danger is still present and should not be underestimated.

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