The growth of the Spanish economy is regaining its balance

BarcelonaAfter the various shocks to which the economy was exposed, which affected various sectors, the growth prospects for 2024 are good, in addition to being balanced between the various sectors. It follows thatSector monitors From Caixa Bank research. Since the first decade of the century there have been imbalances in sectoral growth. First, the bursting of the real estate bubble, then the financial and debt crisis, then the coronavirus, and finally the war in Ukraine, created imbalances.

For example, the coronavirus has significantly impacted the tourism, hotel and restaurant sector, and the invasion of Ukraine has negatively impacted electricity-intensive industry. But now, all sectors are growing with “reduced dispersion,” explained Oriol Aspajas, director of Spanish economics at research bank Caixabank. “When the impact of shocks is reduced, there is less dispersion in growth,” Asbach points out. The study shows that the Spanish economy is leaning towards a more stable growth cycle, noting that “sectors are developing in a more homogeneous way after suffering very unevenly from shocks from 2020 to 2023 (the pandemic and the energy crisis).” In fact, Judit Monturiol, coordinator of the study, points out that all sectors are now growing more or less strongly.

According to Oriol Asbachs, there is a “certain reactivation of the Spanish economy”, which in principle will help reduce the dispersion of growth. Meanwhile, it suggests that CaixaBank Research, which forecast a 1.9% GDP improvement for this year, will have to revise that figure upwards, perhaps to 2.5%, according to Asbach. It is expected that the most important growth in the Spanish economy for the years 2024 and 2025 will be in sectors related to digital transformation, such as information and communications technology and professional services, and sectors in which the Spanish economy is at the forefront, such as the pharmaceutical industry or tourism. .

At the same time, Caixabank research indicates that the Spanish manufacturing industry is showing signs of recovery after the disruptions caused by the Corona virus in supply chains, the strong increase in costs, energy and other materials, the impact of rising interest rates and the slowdown in external demand. The study indicates that for 2024, there are other factors at play in favor of growth. Thus, in the services sector, the tourism potential and attractiveness of the Spanish residential market stand out. Exports are also expected to improve this year.

weaker sectors

Although growth has become more homogeneous and all sectors will grow, it is noted that there are some branches of the economy that are stronger and others that are weaker. Hence, the study points to the sectors with the weakest growth in the textiles and paper industry. The reason for their lower growth must be sought in cost pressures and, on the other hand, in greater international competition.

At the other end of the scale, the sectors with the strongest growth will be ICT, pharmaceutical industry, tourism, and construction, which maintain a positive trend and a strong international competitive advantage. The sectors that will record average growth will be agri-food, automobiles, real estate and trade, which, once normalized by the effects of shocks, will have a very stable behavior.