September 28, 2022

Hardwood Paroxysm

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The entire Crimea and Donbass will pass to Moscow

Each historical turning point corresponds to the revolution of maps and borders, as well as in the Ukraine. To be presented to President Biden yesterday at the funeral of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright war from put it in It is “another historical inflection point such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which called on peoples to decide the future they want and in which place democracy and freedom are under attack by the forces of tyranny and oppression.” As it happened then, so far Western consultants are not only considering potential new maps, which will come out of the drawers once the balance of power on the ground is reached.

Scenarios

No one is officially confirming this, but behind the scenes of the US Security Council there will be those working to re-engineer the possible geopolitical scenarios that will emerge from the conflict. It will be something more than “academic exercises”, which a flies And in Kyiv they form the basis for future peace talks, just as in Albright’s days and in the years before her tenure as Secretary of State, maps of countries born (or reborn) from the ashes of Yugoslavia were shifting. And if the German Defense Minister Christine LambrechtPresident Putin “broke the peace order in Europe with his attack on Ukraine.” No wonder the lines drawn by analysts and diplomats are rumored. A rumor compiled by Lyme’s scientific advisor Germano Duttori, among others, about which new maps and associated borders were roughly defined, but only progress in the war could force them to. Zelensky. Movements on the ground indicate specific targets for conquest of territory with the aim of redefining territories.

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For Putin, recognition of Russian sovereignty is a prerequisite for any negotiated agreement Crimea And Donbass, in the broad sense, is not limited to a third of the area currently under Moscow’s control. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the sole command of the General Dvornikov In fact giving a change of gear to the military campaign, the Russian tactical battalions, though weakened, reconfigured, strengthened and refocused themselves and are now engaged in a “systematic” advance aimed at expanding contact and besieging Ukrainian forces in the east of the country. The fastest line of progress for the Russians is from Kharkiv to the south, the nerve center is Izyum, and from there they drive in the southwest to Parvenkov and southeast to Sloviansk. The ambition seems to be to cut Ukraine and win the relevant part east of the river Dnieper, in addition to completing the capture of the coast overlooking the Sea of ​​Azov by occupying the Mariupol Pass towards the Crimea into the hands of the Russians. It is possible that another direction will open up to the southwest, trying to involve Transnistria and Moldova to create a new front and point to Odessa on the Black Sea. At the same time, the new maps are not only top secret but a real taboo subject when the United States and the countries of the “League for Ukraine” re-launch the belief that even Ukraine can “win the war” and thus find themselves in a position to defeat the invaders and reclaim lost positions. Later.

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Putin threatens the West: “If anyone intervenes, respond with lightning. We have tools that no one else has and we will use them.”

Analyzers

Doubts about the existence and reliability of the new maps prevail among analysts. Ambassador Stefano calls himself a “skeptic for two reasons.” StefaniniFormer diplomatic advisor to President Napolitano. “First of all, even the Americans, after the words of the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, on the need to weaken Russia, determined that the terms of a peace treaty depended on the Ukrainians and that the ball was always in the field between Russia and Ukraine. ” It is true that the advisers “may have their own ideas about what the solutions are, but it would be entirely inappropriate whether or not they were friendly advisers to tell Ukrainians whether and how they were satisfied. Not to mention that possible arrangements for peace would depend on the outcome of the ongoing war.” Another, redrawing borders means making a decision on the table “whether or not hundreds of thousands of refugees will be able to return home, and how long they will remain in the countries that welcomed them”.

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