Small rebound at the beginning of the year
As in January, so goes the year. The old Wall Street adage that stock performance in the first month matches the overall trend puts investors in a good mood: Indeed, the year 2023 opened with a small rise on the European stock exchangesup 10%, accompanied by a positive start in US stocks, up 4%.
Is it a prelude to a condolence year after this terrible year that just ended? “Twice out of three in the past 30 years this measure has worked, but with some major misses, like in 2009 or 2018 (see table ed). Statistics can help, but they are never certain – especially in the short term – concludes Salvatore Gazziano, investment manager at SoldiExpert ». Some of the most powerful insights into the course of the markets in the coming months could come from top equity managers who specialize in four areas – USA, Europe, Italy and China. – for whomCourier economy Ask for enlightenment in the near future (see below). More than numerology, in any case, it is better to think in numbers. For example, the one that measures the distance of European stock exchanges (today very small, only 5 percentage points) from the historical record reached before the war. A number that seems inconsistent with the slowdown in the economy. «However, two important changes that appeared at the beginning of the year must be remembered: the rise in Chinese growth estimates, after the abandonment of the zero Covid policy, and the sharp drop in natural gas prices in Europe.The combined effect is higher growth and lower inflation, which is a very positive combination for risky assets. This is not a technical recovery, but a movement supported by the evolution of the overall picture, ”says Marco Musetti, asset management strategist at Credit Suisse.
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