July 3, 2022

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“Moscow will be defeated”: this is the price to pay

“The facts on the battlefield are that Ukraine is winning the war,” he says. Elliot A. CohenFormer Director of Policy Planning at the Pentagon and Senior Adviser to the State Department at the time of Condoleezza Rice. If, for the Johns Hopkins University professor, negotiation between the two parties was possible only after the defeat of Moscow, with a weak and isolated but no less dangerous Russia, for the West, the post-war period would certainly not be a return to lasting peace. Because the “wounded beast” becomes “angrier” and hardly stops “biting”.

Is the military defeat of Moscow really possible?
“The Russian army is much smaller than many people think: it is not the superpower of World War II. It is poorly directed, not very disciplined and has suffered heavy losses. The Russians seem to be assembling ramshackle units, often replacing them with poorly trained fighting forces. It may be They have local successes, but sooner or later such an army can only collapse. Indeed, there are already some cases of desertion and rebellion. The Ukrainians have also suffered heavy losses, but the morale and motivation for the fight are much higher than the morale of the Russians. “

A bow to Russia, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said recently, is also the goal of the United States.
The United States has made it clear that it aims for the strategic defeat of Russia, which I believe means a return to territorial lines on February 23 and its long-term weakening. Vladimir Putin’s actions have already contributed to this result: it will take years, perhaps decades, before the Russian economy recovers.”

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Then it will be difficult to contain the internal discontent even for Vladimir Putin. So the US strategy aims to a system change?
The United States has never announced such a goal. That would be meaningless. However, it is possible that Putin, after causing a complete disaster for Russia’s foreign policy and economy, will be forced out of the picture. Sure, it would be desirable to replace it with a more liberal system, but the chances of it happening are very low. So any strategy with this goal would not be realistic.”

Washington, for the time being, aims to weaken and isolate Moscow internationally by continuing to support it and Ukraine arm. He does not think it is better for global security to negotiate with Russia, perhaps through Military diplomacy?
Absolutely. But Russia will not be interested in negotiations until the Kremlin realizes that it is losing the war, and at the moment does not seem to fully understand it. A so-called “compromise” that would leave Ukraine torn to pieces would be a moral and geopolitical disaster. It would pave the way for wars We have no right to negotiate the flogging of the Ukrainians, or to try to persuade them to give up part of their territory, just as we have no right to demand that Italy give up Lake Como to please Russia.”

How many opportunities are there to choose the Biden administration to negotiate the hard line?
At the moment, negotiation appears to be an unlikely prospect, at least until there is an initiative on the Russian side. And so far, from Moscow, there is no work in this direction. There is no point in discussing the “settlement” until the defeat of Russia on Earth.

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as written She is also, “Every war will end sooner or later, even this one.” But after that, “there will be no return to normal or the situation that existed before that.” What will the price of peacekeeping be?
“The price of peace? There are two conditions that must be met: to be well-armed and to continue to support Ukraine. In practice, European countries must spend 2 or even 3% of their GDP on defense. Let’s say it’s an effort they can afford. And if they don’t, it will be much worse.”

So, are you telling me, the price of Kyiv’s victory will be global instability?
How do we say this in the face of the Bukha massacre, the devastated cities, the tortured bodies and the rapes? The free and democratic world faces and will have to face a test of its faith, its courage, and its willingness to stand up for its founding values. The United States, the United Kingdom, and other NATO countries on the front line are already doing just that. While some governments in Europe, unfortunately, do not do it well.”