Moscow stops gas from Europe. No methane gas supply if sanctions continue

Close the faucets of the Russian model Gas? “It’s all because of Western sanctions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry said yesterday. Peskov. It is as if he says to the countries of “Canada, Europe and the United Kingdom” that have been explicitly mentioned: He who is the cause of his illness, grieves for himself. But in fact, sanctions are beginning to impact strongly on Russia’s home front as well. last friday He flies Confirmed stopping gas supplies to Egypt Germany Via Nord Stream due to a technical issue: last turbine malfunction still running. Since then, “turbines” have become, at least in Moscow’s account, the most obvious example of the nefarious effect of sanctions on the energy market, a bouncing effect that would backfire against the sanctions themselves. According to Peskov, in fact, it is no longer possible to re-import Siemens turbines sent to Canada for repairs to Russia. The turbines in question have arrived in Germany: Berlin confirms that they do exist Russia To prevent the widget returning.

to me KremlinIt is clear that there is a solution to all problems: to mitigate, if not remove, the sanctions decided by the West. “There is no doubt that the sanctions prevent the units from being maintained,” the spokesman told Interfax. Peskov also took the opportunity to flatly reject the “continuous attempts of the West Russia Responsibility for setting such a deterioration: It is normal that errors occur in the operation of the pipeline, and this naturally leads to interruptions of flows ». So far, Russian institutions have always played down the effects of sanctions on the home front. In mid-August, the Russian Central Bank predicted a recovery early next year, with a growth rate of 2.5 percent in 2025. Instead, the future outlined in an internal report that ended on August 30 was on the table of a closed meeting of senior state officials, And of which Bloomberg was able to show a version, a less bright one.

the report

According to the data held by Kremlin, next year will not be a starting point for a resumption, but, on the contrary, the economy of the Union will undergo an “accelerated deflation”. There is no recovery in sight based on this data, which takes into account the impact of sanctions: Russia, it is written, could face “a longer and deeper recession than expected, with US and European sanctions extended, penalizing sectors for which the country has relied for years to fuel its economy” . Two weeks ago, The New York Times cited data showing how sanctions are beginning to affect even the most strategic sectors of the defense industry, with technology imports nearing a halt (90 percent reduction).

There are several scenarios assumed by the internal report on the Russian economy that it mentioned Bloomberg. The first, “inertia,” sees the economy declining next year by 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario expects minimum in 2024 at 11.9% below last year’s level. But all scenarios predict that “the pressures of sanctions will intensify, and other countries may join them as Europe moves away from oil and gas.” In June, Russia defaulted on its foreign currency debt for the first time since 1918. The default triggered at the end of the grace period on nearly $100 million in outstanding bonds, which had been blocked by sanctions even if the event was more than anything Another symbolic, it remains a blow to prestige and also a tangible warning sign.