It is not tender American rule over this Europeespecially if we refer to the geopolitical autonomy of the ancient continent in the version given these days Emmanuel Macron. balance sheet trip to china The French president is a disaster on this side of the Atlantic. that task a Beijing and Guangzhou It didn’t change the ambiguity of the millimeter Xi Jinping On Ukraine and did not reduce its support to put it in. On the other hand, Shi gave an unexpected gift: He ruled out European solidarity with Taiwan in the event of aggression.
Macron may be content with the business fortune his visit helped generate for fifty French industrialists. But the impact on NATO is significant. Unrealistic European independence theorizing – Because it is not supported by sufficient military resources – and hinting at this in the event of a war on Taiwan America will have as many disadvantages as China, the French leader did his best to strengthen the centrifugal tendencies in Europe, and the isolationist wing of the Republican Party in the United States. Boss is still at home Delegitimization of hostile public opinionAn attempt to revive one’s credibility with foreign policy can be considered a failure. It is certainly in the eyes of the most important partner, America.
This is not the first time Macron has aspired to play the role of the new Charles de GaulleAnd I failed. Washington does not forget that it was he who declared NATO “in a state of brain death” a few years ago: exactly that NATO that instead proved necessary and is being relaunched completely to counter Putin’s offensive in Europe. Macron’s many attempts to pass himself off as a negotiator with Putin, always without results, were also not forgotten.
These antecedents do not seem to have taught the trans-Alpine commander anything. Going to Xi’s court, he once again performed a simulation of the neo-Gaullian grandeur, that is, a remarkable distance from the United States, but also from all pro-Atlantic European countries. In the event of a Chinese military invasion of the island of Taiwan, Macron said, It would be too risky if Europe got involved in a crisis that is not ours.. It also equalized the American and Chinese responsibilities in the event of escalation. These are dubious statements fraught with negative consequences. If anyone threatens force against Taipei on a daily basis, it is them People’s Republic. The United States confines itself to vague promises of defense of the island in the event of an attack, declarations that furthermore indicate a president other than Joe Biden You might come back as well. Obviously, Europe does not have the means to intervene in this area either. This is not to say that attacking Taiwan is not his concern. It would have global consequences no less serious than an attack on Ukraine. It would endanger all of the West’s allies in that part of the world, starting with Japan and South Korea, and it would also jeopardize supplies of semiconductors essential to the European economy. It would signal the decline of liberal democracies and their values. No one expects the ships of the French Navy to help Taiwan defend itself in the event of aggression. But Macron could and should have told Xi that Europe would respond to violence against the democratic island with diplomatic and economic sanctions. The words about Taiwan gave the entire French mission in China a flavor of capitulation.
The Europeans have good reasons not to dominate US foreign policy which, among other things, could change with the upcoming presidential elections. However, the strategic autonomy of the European Union should begin with a clear analysis of the balance of forces and the real threats. In this regard, even American democrats end up adhering to the vision according to which the “new Europe” (the eastern states led by Warsaw, as well as Finland and Sweden) is more realistic and reliable than the Franco-German “old Europe”. (As the Republicans thought under Rumsfeld Bush). The well-known metaphor about “Americans come from Mars, Europeans from Venus” is also an updated version, referring to the naive myth of a world where weapons no longer matter.. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the majority of NATO’s European member states have declared their commitment to a minimum 2% of GDP for security, and then ignored it. Even France, proud of its nuclear power and armed forces, is still less than 2%.
The message Macron sent to Xi is echoing in the US political debate. Bring water to those insular streams – ones Donald Trump It is only he who has the loudest voice – who regards the Europeans as security parasites, full of self-rule ambitions, but incapable of defending themselves without American help. This French stance emboldens those Republican politicians – and some Democrats – who would like to cut off aid to Ukraine. If Paris saved the Taiwan crisis, why should Washington continue to provide assistance to Ukraine to contain Russian expansion? Putin has repeatedly expressed his ambitions to re-establish a sphere of influence similar to the Soviet Union, This would mean a return to the destabilization of the entire Eastern Europe. To what extent can Europeans expect a strong American buffer against Putin’s aims for hegemony on the continent, if trusted EU leaders vie to distance themselves from the United States? Macron works against Biden’s Atlanticism, but he also works against European unity. From Poland to the Baltics, the French president’s words have the effect of underlining conviction: only America-led NATO, not Paris or Berlin, can be trusted to defend it from Russia.
finally, Even among American isolationists, there are those who would like to leave Taiwan to its fate, just like Macron. Even in the United States, there are those who believe that defending that island is a lost cause (China is very powerful now) or simply the wrong reason because vital American interests are not at stake. On this last aspect: on the other hand, those who think so underestimate and despise the role of alliances in preserving a paradigm of Western values. On the one hand, it has some concrete arguments given that this America is reducing its dependence on semiconductors made in Taiwan and accelerating the pace of building new factories on its soil. It is curious that a European leader would also step in to endorse the devaluation of alliances. It cannot be said that Europe is like that Just as quickly as America is reducing its dependence on Asian chips.
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