Israel, US Scenario 007 on “Intolerable Conflict” with Hezbollah

Israel, US Scenario 007 on “Intolerable Conflict” with Hezbollah

Opening a second front with Israel is possible if the “war crimes” against the Palestinians and the blockade imposed on Gaza continue. Speech by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, which he expressed from Lebanon, where he met with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and also – according to the Cedars media – the first man in the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah. There were days of tension on the border between Israel and Lebanon, following the attack carried out by Hamas on Saturday in IsraelWith the exchange of artillery and missile fire, and Israel deploying reserve forces in areas towards the border with Lebanon.

American analysis: A “massive attack” looms on the horizon?

Also a false alarm in Israel. Experts described Hezbollah as the most armed non-governmental entity in the world. But it is unlikely, as the Washington Post wrote based on a US intelligence document, that “Hezbollah, the political party (which has the largest number of seats in parliament in Beirut along with its allies) and the armed group it supports, according to a US intelligence document, will launch “Widespread attack.” By “Iran.

However, he writes in an analysis for Haaretz: Israel “walks a fine line” between Gaza and Lebanon‘Waiting for Hezbollah’s next move’ The IDF will have to decide whether to focus on one front or both. Only yesterday, after a meeting of NATO Defense Ministers, Lloyd Austin (today in Tel Aviv) specified this The United States does not see “any reinforcement of Hezbollah forces on the border.”.

The Israeli newspaper wrote that there are, above all, those among commentators who are pushing to “take advantage” of the war to launch another attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, to destroy the group’s capabilities in southern Lebanon and avoid a repeat of the attack from the north. Hamas from Gaza. Among Israeli military leaders, there are those who believe that it is better to focus in the north on ground defenses, with heavy air strikes if necessary. “It is a question of priorities, where to focus, and – as we read in Haaretz – to what extent it is possible to work simultaneously in both directions, while also fearing terrorist attacks from the West Bank and incidents inside Israel.”

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Is Hezbollah ready to join Hamas?

CNN reported on Wednesday that high-ranking US administration officials, following tensions on the border between Israel and Lebanon, do not believe Hezbollah is ready to join Hamas. At the beginning of the year, the newspaper highlights that US intelligence analysts saw a predictable balance between Israel and Hezbollah, albeit still marred by violence, which reduced the risk of a full-scale war in 2023. The chief of staff speaks of a position of “mutual deterrence.” By Israel and Lebanon Since October 2022 – after 11 years – the two countries have reached an agreement to demarcate the maritime borders.

Measures by Tel Aviv and Hezbollah to “stay prepared”

Thus, according to the document obtained by the Washington Post, Israel and Hezbollah adopted measures to “remain prepared” to use force, but remained “within their historical models,” that is, avoiding casualties and responding proportionately to provocations. However, the analysis also highlights factors that could upset the balance such as Hezbollah’s “inability” to “rein in Palestinian militants”, such as Hamas, which is active in Lebanon. In April, 34 rockets were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israel, an attack (the worst in years) that the Israeli army attributed to Hamas. A day earlier, Hamas leaders met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. Over the course of months, the analysis found that “Israel realized that there was a great risk of miscalculations due to Hamas plots in Lebanon.” Essentially, for US intelligence, the paper concludes that even if Hezbollah is not interested in provoking a conflict with Israel, nothing is entirely under its control.

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According to the US State Department, Hezbollah has tens of thousands of members and supporters around the world and receives hundreds of millions of dollars every year from Iran. According to open Israeli sources, Hezbollah has increased its arsenal of rockets and rocket-propelled grenades from approximately 15,000 pieces in 2006 to 130,000 pieces in 2021. Nasrallah claims to command 100,000 fighters. “So far – writes Haaretz – there is an impression that he is making his contribution to Hamas from the north, but has not yet decided to fully join the fighting, or that he has decided to pursue a policy of “disturbing” in the region.” Preparing for an attack during a clash between Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip.” At a time when the Israeli forces talk about “exceptional” cooperation with the Americans and strong support from the United Kingdom, the Israeli newspaper’s analysis continues, hoping to strengthen the American military presence (with sending it to an area where the attack group operates The aircraft carrier Gerald Ford serves as a deterrent to Hezbollah and Iran.

Matthew Levitt, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that Hezbollah is now likely to benefit from the war in the south. The newspaper quoted him as saying, “I see (Hezbollah) gradually trying to change the rules of the game. I expect to see small things from time to time along the border, as Hezbollah tries to remember that it is there.” “The newspaper highlights that Hezbollah’s rhetoric has indeed changed, and if the group had initially announced – in the words of Hashem Safi al-Din – that it was “not neutral in this battle” after the Hamas attack in Israel, “moderation” later leaked from the statements issued. About Hezbollah. And calls for solidarity and protest, while emphasizing that the “resistance” is ready for a possible confrontation. The newspaper confirms that its positions are completely different from the positions of other armed groups in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen and the Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq, which have threatened to launch attacks in response to the aid. The US military to Israel. The risks of escalation are never absent, especially with provocations. In Levitt’s words, “the risk of miscalculation is extraordinarily high.”

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