The Governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, said yesterday that “we are facing a possible drop in interest rates in June” during his participation in the 39th Economic Circle meeting. During an interview with the President of CaixaBank, José Ignacio Goeregolzarri, he also mentioned that the current development of the economy indicates that the issuing institute will revise its forecast for this year upwards, which means a new improvement after March.
During the session, moderated by Nuria Mas, from Cercle’s board of directors and former advisor to the Bank of Spain, Hernández de Cos warned that the degree of uncertainty “remains high” due to issues such as the war in Ukraine, among others. He admitted that the decline in productivity of the Spanish economy, which is one of the topics of this year’s Circle conference, along with the unemployment rate, are outstanding topics.
This relates to “very small” companies linked to regulatory thresholds that discourage growth in size and “excessive” regulatory requirements, he said, as well as to human capital that continues to maintain the highest rate for schools. EU dropout rate and ‘distinctly mediocre’ school test results. The other element is the decline in spending on research and development in the public sector, especially in the private sector.
The governor stated that the March forecasts of the European Central Bank indicate the possibility of maintaining the inflation target at around 2% in 2025 and 2026. He pointed out that the Spanish economy has maintained a high level of flexibility. He added, “The latest data confirms this development, and it is likely that expectations for this year will be revised upward.”
Per capita income
Guerigolzari warned of the difficulty of maintaining levels of economic growth in light of international competition. He warned of indicators such as the growth of per capita income in the United States by 33%, compared to about 13% in Europe. The same thing also happens in the Spanish region. In fact, over the past three years, Spain’s per capita income has practically not grown.
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