WashingtonA new obvious concern about the Democratic Party: If the presidential election were held today, it would not be surprising if Donald Trump won it. Opinion polls have been warning for some time about his growing popularity, and he is already two points ahead of Joe Biden (46% vs. 44%). According to the latest opinion poll New York times. This data, with less than a year to go before the election, can be explained by the upward trend of Trump, who is exploiting his four historic impeachments to relaunch his campaign, and the fall of Biden, both of whom are once again being called into question. Inside and outside his party.
The Democratic incumbent, who at 80 is the oldest person ever to hold the Oval Office, is losing the support of young people, a group that was crucial to his election in 2020 and avoided expected legislation last year. For the first time a survey is being conducted times It also gives Trump victory among young people: 49% to 43%.
If 60% of registered voters under the age of 30 voted for him in the last presidential elections, today only 25% of this group have a positive opinion about his administration, according to Reuters. Quinnipiac poll. This data is seconded by Another poll of Washington PostWhich puts Trump 20 points ahead of Biden among those under 35 years old.
We still have eleven months until the elections, on November 5, 2024, and it is still too early to extrapolate the results. But this trend adds a new concern for Democrats, because they are unable to connect their leader with younger audiences. Among the reasons, American media highlighted the difficulty of communicating on the platforms consumed by millennials Zoom tools (such as TikTok, YouTube, or Instagram), compared to the last election They made up 21% of the electorateHis attempt to cancel the student debt of millions of people failed, a move that was struck down by the Supreme Court.
Biden's role in Gaza demobilizes young people
The warlike tone used by Biden in the recent escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine, despite the distancing of the past few days, could deepen this distance with young people, who are more supportive of a ceasefire than the rest of the population. The President has shown his absolute support for Israel since October 7, and expressed this with his visit to Tel Aviv two weeks later, and with the “urgent” request to Congress to approve a $111 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and Israel. Strengthening the southern border.
While 51% of those under the age of 35 do not agree to sending additional weapons, ammunition, troops and aircraft carriers to Israel. This does not mean that they have an opinion against the Jewish state, which they continue to support regarding Palestine, but they are against the role that the White House plays in the war.
However, the loss of youth support is not necessarily bad news for Biden: His rhetoric, which focused on “national security,” appeals to Americans as a whole, with 76% saying supporting Israel is part of the US national interest, and only 28% opposing sending weapons. According to Quinnipiac.
Less and less bipartisan
In the 2020 presidential election, half (50%) of young people (under 30) with the right to vote went to the polls, a strong 11% increase over previous elections, driven largely by fear of a second Trump term. Biden received 60% of those votes. But elections tend to punish the incumbent president, which a Democratic president cannot afford, given that he already won the presidential race by a narrow margin, giving strength to Trump's theory of election fraud.
In recent decades, young people have sided with the Democratic candidate in one election after another. In 2008, for example, Barack Obama won votes Two-thirds of this electorate. Today, those under 35 are still more likely to vote Democratic and feel more challenged by issues like abortion rights, anti-racism, or the climate emergency. While Biden's speech addresses these issues, polls show that he did not go far enough.
In fact, more and more young people reject bipartisanship and consider themselves independent: About 52% of Millennials and Generation Z identify neither with Democrats nor Republicans, according to Gallup Poll A year ago, in this group, which is expected to constitute the majority of voters by the end of the current decade, there is a large section of hesitant and abstaining voters, who will decide the outcome of the upcoming elections.
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